Displaying items by tag: real estate

Real estate took one of the hardest hits in any submarket due to rising interest rates but as certainty starts to look a little clearer REITs pose to make a comeback.  Several real estate investment trusts (REITs) recently received analyst upgrades, indicating substantial potential upside.

Equity Residential, which owns numerous apartment communities, was upgraded by Piper Sandler from Neutral to Overweight with a new price target of $80. Acadia Realty Trust was upgraded by JP Morgan from Underweight to Neutral, with a price target of $18. Finally, Americold Realty Trust Inc., specializing in temperature-controlled storage, saw upgrades from both Barclays and Scotiabank, with price targets set at $26 and $30, respectively. Digital Realty Trust (NYSE

 Despite various market conditions, these REITs show promising growth prospects according to recent analyst evaluations. 

Finsum: Investors can also look to yield as an important factor and get income exposure through REITs. 

Asset managers believe the next two years might be ideal for investing in private real estate, despite recent market challenges. Clients are increasingly interested in risk-adjusted returns, prompting RIAs to explore private real estate opportunities. 

Core real estate, with its stable returns and lower leverage, is seen as favorable. Despite last year's focus on falling property valuations, sentiment is shifting as investors seek to time market entry. 

Private real estate offers attractive returns but requires patience due to slow cycles and the need for market stability. Potential buyers should be aware that the price gap between buyers and sellers remains a challenge.

Finsum: The old adage of buying the dip could be especially in play for this current moment in real estate.

While commercial properties values have struggled mightily this year KKR is trying to instill shareholder confidence in its $1.2 billion private real estate investment trust. KREST’s struggles are not in isolation as many REITS have faced a two-year downturn due to rising interest rates and decreased investor capital. 

To counteract this, KKR announced a shareholder priority plan involving the potential cancellation of up to 7.7 million KREST shares if the net asset value per share drops below $27 by June 2027. This move would increase per-share value by reducing the number of outstanding shares. Additionally, KKR affiliates will inject $50 million of new capital into KREST, demonstrating their commitment to the trust and the real estate market.

 KKR's strategy mirrors actions taken by Blackstone last year, aiming to protect non-KKR shareholders from short-term declines while allowing them to benefit from potential real estate recoveries.

Finsum: While commercial real estate has most likely bottomed out, its still tough to say if it will ever recover or if this is the new normal. 

There are increasing concerns that a crisis is brewing in commercial real estate (CRE), as over the next couple of years, $2 trillion in CRE loans will need to be refinanced. Previously, there were hopes that macro conditions would soften, leading to lower rates and a more favorable lending environment. Instead, inflation has proven to be more resilient than expected, and expectations of Fed dovishness have been dialed back.

In addition to high rates, major challenges include decreasing demand for offices and rising vacancies, a stricter lending environment, and balance sheet woes at regional banks, which traditionally account for a large share of CRE lending. However, there is significant variance within the CRE market. Areas like data centers, hotels, and industrial buildings continue to show strength, while retail and multifamily exhibit more mixed performance.

If conditions worsen, there is a risk of spillover effects on the broader economy, including decreased lending activity due to losses at banks, lower tax revenue for local governments due to more vacancies and lower property values, and subsequent declines in hiring. However, the consensus continues to be that there won’t be a full-blown crisis as the sector is sufficiently diversified and continues to have strong credit performance despite adverse conditions.

Finsum: Investors should pay attention to the CRE market given the refinancing cliff and challenges posed by higher rates and a stricter lending environment. 

What is the best way to manage a portfolio in an era with less structural disinflation, and how can you improve upon the 60/40 in the current environment 

 The traditional 60/40 portfolio, consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, has long been a benchmark, balancing growth from stocks with stability from bonds. However, the historical success of this model relies on a period of declining interest rates and favorable economic conditions in the U.S., which may not persist in the future. 

As interest rates stop declining and inflation potentially rises, the performance of the 60/40 portfolio is expected to be less impressive, especially during high inflation periods when energy and commodities tend to outperform. To better manage portfolios in this new environment, it’s advisable to diversify beyond the 60/40 mix by including assets like commodities, real estate, and cash equivalents to hedge against inflation and provide more stability during economic shifts.

Finsum: We have seen an increased correlation between stocks and bonds in the most recent years suggesting alternative diversification to manage volatility.