Displaying items by tag: biden

(Washington)

The reality of the political situation in the US is that markets and the media are betting that Biden is going to win the presidency. Many also think the Democrats have a fair shot at sweeping Congress and the presidency. If either eventuality happens, especially the latter, tax hikes look likely. Biden formally announced his plan to do so recently. Therefore, a rise in corporation tax and a hike in the top tax bracket back to Obama-era levels seems highly probable.

FINSUM: The tax hikes that seem most likely will create a host of considerations for high earners. For instance, a reversion to previous tax levels would change the utility of certain pass-through entities versus other types of businesses.

(Washington)

Those who lean right might not want to consider it, but polls have been showing Biden and the Democrats leading (poll issues being a major issue, but ceteris paribus….). That said, investors have a duty to consider what would happen in the event of a Biden win, or a Democratic sweep. While Democratic wins in the House and presidency are quite plausible at this point, a win in the Senate still looks like a challenge. Let’s consider two scenarios then: a Biden win with a split Congress, and a Democratic sweep. In the first scenario, markets do not worry a whole lot. The Republicans holding onto the Senate would mean many of the left’s more radical proposals would be blocked. What about a Democratic sweep? That could be different, as Democrats could push through anything they wanted. However, even that scenario is looking less dire for investors because Biden is not moving to the left as much as feared. Also, since his priority will be to reopen the economy, sharp increases in taxes seem unlikely in the near term.

FINSUM: It still seems unlikely that Democrats could sweep given the Republican’s 53-47 lead in the Senate. So if Biden wins and the Democrats keep the House, it would probably be an okay (no big moves) scenario for investors.

(Washington)

Despite some minor discontent, generally speaking the broker-dealer industry has been very tolerant of the new Reg BI. However, those who have been working on compliance and counting their blessings that DOL Rule 1.0 didn’t come into full force could be in for a rude awakening. Many will be aware that Joe Biden is well ahead in national polls at the moment. Polling difficulties aside (of which there are many), the growing risk for the industry is that Biden wins and then quickly moves to cancel Reg BI and install a much stricter rule akin to the first iteration of the DOL Rule. If he were to win the White House and take Congress, he would have wide latitude to undue the current regulatory paradigm. Even without a Congressional win, he would very likely reappoint all the heads of key departments, like the SEC and DOL, which could have a strong effect.

FINSUM: Just as the industry was settling into what looked like it might be a permanent new regulatory environment, things could very messy again. If Trump wins, none of this happens, but given polls it is an increasingly likely possibility.

(Washington)

New polls emerging show an interesting picture of how the November election may go. While Biden remains about 5 points ahead of Trump in national polls, what is more interesting is that he holds a 5-point lead in three of the most integral swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That is critical because those are the states that trump won in 2016 in order to beat Hillary. If he doesn’t win those states this time around, the odds are very long for a Trump victory.

FINSUM: The state of the economy and the long lockdown seem to be weighing on Trump right now, but there is still six months to go, which is more than enough time for a big swing (in either direction).

(Washington)

The “mini Super Tuesday” results are in from yesterday’s six primaries, and Joe Biden has taken an even more commanding lead. The biggest prize he won yesterday was Michigan, giving him a very strong lead heading into next week’s primaries, which includes Florida. He is almost untouchable at the point, but a win in Florida—which is forecasted—would make his advantage insurmountable.

FINSUM: Two thoughts here. Firstly, Sanders is the most successful non-winning candidate ever. He changed the party and galvanized the center, which ultimately led to his losing, but transformed the vision of the party. Secondly, Biden is more dangerous for Trump. He has the right middle-of-the-road policies and demeanor to attract moderates and those whose eyes might be wavering from the president.