In its Q2 active fixed income commentary, Vanguard discussed lowering rate hike expectations for 2024 due to strong economic data, while inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s desired levels. 

Despite the odds of a soft landing declining, Vanguard’s base-case scenario is that the Fed is done hiking and will hold rates at these levels until later this year. A risk to the firm’s outlook is inflation lingering above 3%, which would spark discussion about the need for further rate hikes. 

It sees monetary policy as remaining data-dependent and notes that the Fed has limited room to maneuver. The central bank risks another surge in inflation by cutting rates too soon, but it also risks a prolonged recession by cutting rates too late. 

Despite this uncertainty, Vanguard believes that there will be opportunities amid higher market volatility. It recommends investors take advantage of locking in attractive yields for longer durations and sees potential for better risk-adjusted returns in bonds vs. equities. Over the next 5 years, Vanguard forecasts returns of 4.5% for stocks and 4.3% for bonds. However, bonds are expected to have one-third of the volatility of stocks at 5.2% vs. 15.8%. 

Finsum: Vanguard shared its quarterly active fixed income outlook. The firm is downgrading its expectations for rate cuts in 2024, given recent economic data. Instead, it sees more opportunities in other parts of the fixed-income market.

Assets in model portfolios grew by nearly 50% over the last 2 years. By fully or partially outsourcing the investment management function, it frees up more time for advisors to focus on building their practice, client service, financial planning, and prospecting. According to a recent survey from Cerulli, 12% of advisors are using model portfolios primarily, with 22% using a hybrid approach. 

In addition to benefiting advisors, model portfolios have become a major distribution channel for asset managers such as Blackrock. Among asset managers, Blackrock has the most assets in model portfolios at $84 billion. Blackrock anticipates model portfolio assets exceeding $10 trillion within the next 5 years, more than doubling from $4.2 trillion currently. Model portfolios comprised 50% of flows from US investors into iShares ETFs last year.

WisdomTree is another major beneficiary of the boom in model portfolios. Last year, the company saw a 100% increase in the number of advisors using its model and had asset growth of 40%. It sees model portfolios as a ‘key growth driver’ for the firm in the coming years.

As model portfolios become a larger presence in wealth management, there will be large shifts of flows in and out of various ETFs depending on decisions made by asset managers. For instance, JPMorgan found that ETFs that were held in its model portfolios had significantly more inflows than ETFs not in model portfolios, at $80 billion vs. $30 billion. 

Finsum: Model portfolios are forecast to exceed $10 trillion in assets within the next 5 years. They are becoming increasingly integral for advisors and asset managers. 

2024 has proven to be a year of relentless volatility for fixed income, given mixed signals about inflation, the economy, and monetary policy. However, there are plenty of opportunities to make money amid these conditions. 

A consequence of high rates is that the US government is expected to pay more than $1 trillion in interest to bondholders this year, which is more than double the average from the previous decade. Currently, all Treasury securities are yielding more than 4%, and due to elevated rates, investors have a higher margin of safety. This means that fixed income is once again a source of meaningful income for investors and serves as a counterweight to equities.

Deal flow also remains robust, which is a positive for underwriters and sponsors. According to Bloomberg, bankers who underwrite bond offerings are expected to see a 25% increase in bonuses. In terms of sales and trading, bonuses are expected to rise by 20%, compared to an increase of 5% to 15% for equities. 

Another trend in fixed income is the electronication of the bond market. Traditionally, bond trading has been done over the phone or through banks, which has resulted in illiquidity and less price discovery. 

Now, volume is moving to electronic bond exchanges, which is benefiting market makers like Citadel Securities and Jane Street. These firms are now making markets in government and corporate bonds. It’s estimated that 42% of investment-grade debt trades were electronic last year, compared to 31% in 2021.

Finsum: Entering the year, many were confident that Fed rate cuts would fuel a bull market in bonds. This has failed to materialize, but there have been opportunities in fixed income.

Retaining top financial advisors is crucial for building a competitive wealth business, and many advisors wonder what they should consider before switching firms while firms consider what it takes to retain key talent. Beyond recruitment, retention significantly impacts the success of wealth management firms by maintaining high-performing advisors and increasing their productivity. 

Advisors should emphasize the importance of integrated technology solutions to enhance efficiency and productivity, making it more compelling for an advisor to stay. It’s critical that your firm understands and addresses your needs through improved technology and flexible work options which can help aid you in being more productive with clients. 

The role of advanced, seamlessly integrated technology platforms is highlighted as a key factor in retaining advisors by boosting their client service capabilities and overall satisfaction.

Finsum: Advisors should consider the total package before changing firms and technology is one of the most critical ways a firm can assist your productivity. 

Exploring art museums isn't a leisure reserved for those in the artistic community; it's an enriching experience for financial advisors too. These vibrant spaces offer valuable insights into innovation and creativity, which are essential qualities in the financial world. 

Artists are navigating an evolving technological landscape, that is mirrored throughout society including that in the financial world. Embrace the opportunity to explore art museums and discover how creativity can fuel success in the financial advisory realm. 

One of the most popular destinations in the world is the Museum of Modern Art in New York city which specializes in art from the 19th century onward. For those in the Midwest, the Art Institute in Chicago features great works by Frank Loyd Wright and is near many Chicago cultural touchstones. Finally, those on the west coast should visit the LACMA in Los Anges which touch many places in the contemporary and historical art landscape. 

Finsum: Art is also a rapidly growing alternative asset class and could provide a new perspective in investing.

Advisors are constantly looking for the latest tools that can help them manage their practice more efficiently without giving up returns in exchange. With the rapid developments in model portfolios, the technology is finally there to deliver the aforementioned goals in a timely manner. 

Utilizing these models helps advisors draw on institutional expertise while still customizing to address each client's unique needs, ensuring a consistent experience for all clients. This strategy combines the benefits of professional research with the advisor’s ability to manage and optimize portfolios, facilitating both improved performance and efficient firm scaling. 

By employing technology for asset research and replacement, advisors can integrate customization, allowing them to dedicate more time to client relationships and business growth.

Finsum: This efficiency gained by streamlining portfolio construction allows advisors to improve their relationships with clients. 

The 4% rule has become conventional wisdom when it comes to managing finances during retirement. As millions of people enter retirement over the next decade, it may be time to revise this rule, given higher inflation and longer lifespans.

Social Security benefits are typically equivalent to 40% of a retiree’s income. According to TIAA, retirees should consider pairing the 4% rule with an annuity to generate higher levels of income during retirement. This means that a retiree would convert some portion of their savings into an annuity.

In the first year, this is likely to boost income by up to 32% compared to just using the 4% rule. It also leads to more predictable income and shields retirees from market risk. More predictability can also help with more effective financial planning, leading to a more enjoyable retirement. 

Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) are another method to increase guaranteed income, especially with a ladder across different maturities. It also protects retirees against inflation. 

Overall, the 4% rule should be reconsidered, especially in this era. It leads to less spending flexibility and should be augmented with other sources of income. It also doesn’t account for retirees’ individual circumstances, such as tax rates, risk profiles, and cash flow needs. 

Finsum: TIAA believes that the 4% rule should be reconsidered, especially for those retiring now. Retirees may need more income and should consider annuities or TIPS.

April was marked by a mean reversion as robust inflation data and continued economic resilience dampened expectations of Fed dovishness later this year. As a result, flows into equity ETFs dropped from $106 billion in March to $41 billion in April. 

In contrast, flows surged into fixed income ETFs, increasing more than 60% to $27.4 billion. Lower-risk government bond ETFs attracted the most inflows at $10.1 billion, which was the highest since October of last year. Within the category, short and intermediate-term Treasuries captured the most inflows. 

In the US, flows into fixed-income ETFs were greater than equity ETF flows, at $15.2 billion vs. $14.1 billion. Scott Chronert, the global head of ETF research at Citi, noted “US-listed ETF flows decelerated this month against a generally risk-off backdrop. Underlying trends also pointed to more cautious positioning. Fixed income led all asset classes, but the gains were skewed towards core products, shorter durations, and Treasuries.”

Until something material changes in regard to inflation or the economy, it’s likely that investors will continue to favor ETFs that benefit from short-term rates remaining higher for longer. 

Finsum: Fixed income inflows into ETFs sharply increased in April, while equity inflows declined. This was a downstream effect of reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year due to an uptick in inflation.

The U.S. Treasury Department is seeking to curtail the use of bespoke life insurance policies and annuities by wealthy individuals and families to minimize their tax obligations. The proposal is called "Limit Tax Benefits for Private Placement Life Insurance and Similar Contracts" is part of the fiscal year 2025 "Greenbook"

This proposal aims to reduce the tax advantages associated with private placement life insurance, private placement annuities, and certain variable life and annuity contracts. While few Greenbook proposals are enacted into law swiftly, their inclusion can significantly influence financial services lobbyists and advisors over time.

Issued annually as part of the president's budget proposal, the Greenbook has previously suggested limiting business-owned life insurance and similar arrangements. The new measure could potentially raise $140 million in 2025 and $6.9 billion from 2025 to 2034. Designed for high-net-worth individuals, private placement life insurance and annuities allow customization of benefits and investments, often to gain tax benefits rather than to offer mortality or longevity protection.

Finsum: This proposal could take years to come into law, if it even ever happens, but the landscape could get more progressive if Biden is re-elected. 

Investors are finding increasingly innovative ways to invest in private markets and interval funds are one of the latest trends developing in this area. Interval funds enable individual investors to commit to strategies that invest directly in private markets, while listed private equity ETFs invest in public firms offering private-market strategies. 

There has been a spike in interest for alternatives and uncorrelated assets, benefiting interval funds. High-net-worth investors now have access to private capital managers previously exclusive to pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, but accessing and managing the required capital remains a challenge. Private-market funds, including variously named private market access and opportunity funds, address this need and saw significant growth with 11 new products launched in 2022, a trend continuing in 2023. 

Although these funds offer unique advantages like access and diversification, they come with high costs, potential liquidity issues, and commitment periods that can lock up capital, necessitating careful consideration by investors.

Finsum: Liquidity lock up should be highly considered for these types of alts, and the current high rate environment can exacerbate this problem.