(New York)

Most of the market’s panic over retail centers on the threat from Amazon and the shift to ecommerce from brick and mortar (admittedly related threats). However, there is more out there to be worried about than just those. In particular, the apparel market is not growing very quickly, as it is losing market share to other areas of consumer spending, such as restaurants, entertainment and wellness. Staffing costs are also rising at the same time as price pressure is growing, putting a strain on margins.

FINSUM: Amazon’s growth in apparel sales is also well-outpacing the overall industry’s growth rate, which means it is already stealing market share on top of these other challenges.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs has stuck to its guns with its trading division despite numerous changes to the industry and its competitors revamping. However, the bank finally appears to be changing its strategy. Since 2009, Goldman’s fixed income trading revenue has shrunk from over $23 bn in 2009, to just over $5 bn in 2017. Now the bank is changing its focus away from serving hedge fund clients, whom it has become overly reliant on, and towards big corporate clients, who offer a different sort of “flow” business based on interest swaps and other corporate needs.

FINSUM: We think it is smart for Goldman to diversify the focus on its fixed income unit. Especially since the $20bn plus revenue days don’t look like they are coming back.

(Houston)

Oil prices have done very well over the last several months. Prices have been rising at the pump, making producers happier and consumers less so. However, gloomier days may lay ahead. The IEA thinks US shale oil output may soon surge on the back of higher prices. If this happens, it would undue the supply reduction OPEC’s cuts have created and send the market downward. Additionally, it would likely lead to an unwind of OPEC’s cuts, as if they were maintained, the reductions would be disproportionately benefitting OPEC’s competitors.

FINSUM: Oil prices have been doing better, but that does not change the fact that world has a fundamental oversupply of oil. This is not a problem by any means, but is a factor that will weigh on prices for years to come.

(Los Angeles)

PIMCO says there is one really big thing to fear in markets above all else—the lack of fear. The current “melt up” is symptomatic of extreme investor confidence, and that is cause for grave concern, says PIMCO, one of the world’s largest money managers. According to PIMCO, “The fact that the fear is gone is the main reason why we should be worried”, continuing “That means most investors are now pretty fully invested and that means they will want to get out if the markets start to correct -- exacerbating the downdraft”.

FINSUM: We think PIMCO has a great point. The market’s start to this year is pretty insane—it is on track to triple in value in 2018. Is this the final run before a big downturn?

(New York)

There has been A LOT of talk lately about a bond bear market. The idea is that rates are now in a secular rising cycle led by a hawkish Fed and rising inflation. The issue with that view is two-fold. Firstly, the bond market “experts” calling for the bear market are well-served if it comes true because of the strategies they use. And secondly, there isn’t really evidence of much inflation and the Fed is not looking overly hawkish. The one really worrying thing is that the economy has been performing well, which does lend itself to rising rates and more money flowing into risk assets.

FINSUM: We think all these worries are premature. We have a new Fed chief coming in which now one is sure about, and there just isn’t much inflation. Plus, there are tens of millions of people retiring who will need income investments.

(New York)

The market will inevitably be shocked by some big news this year. Trying to forecast such news always seems like a futile exercise, but Barron’s has gone out on a limb and tried to select what will rock markets in 2018. There a three big calls being made. The first is a US government shutdown on the back of political in-fighting. That might cause a dip, but not a lasting one. The other two could be different. For instance, a looming trade war with China or other major trading partners could cause serious market issues. Additionally, there may be indictments of Trump’s closest family members, including Donald Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner, according to Barron’s.

FINSUM: Indictments of Trump’s family would rock Washington and the national psyche to its core. But it is hard to say that it would have a lasting effect on markets other than to create political uncertainty.

(San Francisco)

In what appears to be the first big American reinvestment on the back of the new US tax package, Apple has announced that it will invest $30 bn in the US and pay its $38 bn tax bill. It will expand US operations and add 20,000 new jobs. The company will also give all of its more than 120,000 employees a $2,500 stock bonus. President Trump commented on the news that “I promised that my policies would allow companies like Apple to bring massive amounts of money back to the United States”.

FINSUM: This is why we thought the lowering of corporate taxes was a good idea, and we are very happy to hear that Apple will pay its bill and invest more in the US. As an aside, we do sort of feel like Apple is using this investment as PR fodder to combat against the battery/performance scandal.

(New York)

A few weeks ago bitcoin was trading at over $20,000 on some exchanges. No it is trading below $9,500. Critics of the cryptocurrency are taking the big fall as vindication of their view, while others are sticking to bitcoin. Other cryptocurrencies slid big too, with ethereum and litecoin both falling around 30%. “The crypto craze is morphing into a crypto crash, from Bitcoin mania to Bitcoin bust”, says a trading analyst, continuing that “that there is no level at which value players step in” when a bubble is bursting.

FINSUM: One of the big problems with bitcoin, as opposed to say the cotton bubbles of American history, is that there is no fundamental underlying economic value of the currency, so there is no potential bottom other than zero.

(San Francisco)

The fallout from the revelation that Apple’s operating systems drain the batteries of older model phones appears to be hammering the company. The company admitted they deliberately slowed down the performance of older phones to keep them from crashing. The admission has led to widespread criticism and lawsuits are headed the company’s way. Apple has tried to mitigate the issue by cutting prices for replacement batteries and offering free software to check battery health.

FINSUM: We have this fear that this battery and performance scandal might be the beginning of the end of the golden age of Apple.

(New York)

Stock investors may be in for some big upside surprises while bond investors’ hearts may sink. The new tax regime may have a major unintended consequence for bond markets. With the new lower corporate tax rate, many multinationals are likely to repatriate hundreds of billions of Dollars. For the last several years, much of that money has been parked in Treasuries and other bonds. But with the ability and likelihood of reshoring, companies are likely to pull huge amounts of capital out of bonds and put it into stock buybacks and dividends. This could be a big plus for equities, but bond markets could sink as massive amounts of capital are withdrawn.

FINSUM: This is the first convincing argument we have heard for why any fundamental force, outside of the Fed, could bring about a bond bear market.