(Houston)

Oil has been in a bear market for about three years. While it has not been consistent and there have been ups and downs, oil prices have been mostly stuck, plagued by oversupply. However, Citi thinks that paradigm is about to disappear, with prices rising to $80 per barrel. Citi says a host of geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Iran, broader Middle East tensions, and North Korea are three issues which will send prices higher.

FINSUM: We aren’t big fans of this prediction. Not so much because we don’t think oil could move higher, but because forecasting political risks is a hopeless exercise. Here is a different view: the OPEC agreement falls apart because the only producer it is helping is the US (which is not in OPEC), sending prices much lower.

(New York)

Despite reaching a much more mature stage of their development, ETFs, overall, are still on a torrid run. But what is next for the all-consuming asset class? Barron’s argues there are a few trends to watch. The first will be an expansion of fixed income ETFs, which have grown considerably, but have much more room to run. Secondly, advisors might have bigger clout in the sector, as RIAs may start converting their own strategies into ETFs. Also, the further hybridizing of passive/active funds may go faster as Vanguard is debuting a new range of very low-cost active ETFs.

FINSUM: Mentally we sort of compare ETFs to the growth of Amazon. The question is where WON’T they head next.

(New York)

Advisors keep your eyes open, FINRA has put out a new warning on what not to do. The regulator says that dually-registered advisors need to be very careful when moving client funds from a brokerage to an advisory account. FINRA explains best, saying “Finra will review situations in which registered representatives recommend a switch from a brokerage account where that switch clearly disadvantages the customer … such as where the registered representative recommended that the customer purchase a securities product subject to a front-end sales charge in a brokerage account and then shortly thereafter recommended that account be transferred to a fee-based account”.

FINSUM: This is sort of a suitability/fiduciary rule hybrid type of enforcement. We thought all advisors should be aware that FINRA is on the lookout for this.

(Washington)

Those hoping for a complete end to the DOL’s fiduciary rule should keep their fingers crossed, as despite political pushback, and success on slowing down the rule, the GOP is still working hard to defeat the rule. The newest chance comes in the form of a rider on the current spending bill which is designed to do away with the rule. Previous attempts at doing so have been heavily opposed by Democrats.

FINSUM: We think this one actually has a better chance of getting through. The reason why is that the tide has definitively turned against the DOL rule, and so Democrats may be more willing to give it up as a trade or concession as part of a spending deal.

(San Francisco)

The risks of regulation on Silicon Valley are rising. Fake news and data leaks have raised the suspicion of media, consumers, and government, and just yesterday Apple’s shareholders called for an investigation into iPhone addiction and mental damage in children. Now, without even a day’s rest, there is a another major probe into Apple. This one is coming out of France and surrounds the allegation that Apple deliberately worsens performance in older phones. The company faces criminal charges for the behavior.

FINSUM: So this could go both ways. If France finds something, it could turn into a global PR nightmare that could really hurt the company. However, we are not sure how much information France will actually have access to, so it may turn out to be nothing.

(New York)

Call it euphoria, irrational exuberance, or a melt-up, everyone is looking for signs that market valuations are out of control and approaching a downfall. Some signs have finally started to show up in the last few months as stocks have steadily gained. One such sign can be seen across the market—the elimination of hedges. Consistently low volatility has reduced fear in investors’ hearts to the point that many are abandoning puts and other downside protections. They are trying to chase the performance of passives and don’t want to “waste” money on hedging. The chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald comments on the trend that “I haven’t seen hedging activity this light since the end of the financial crisis … It started in late 2016 and accelerated in the second half of the year”.

FINSUM: This is typical late cycle imprudent behavior, but chasing benchmark performance is a good explanation of the trend.

(San Francisco)

There is no doubt about it, the FAANG stocks—Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google—were a huge force is delivering 2017’s great return. But it might be time to remove them from your portfolio, at least as Barron’s argues it. And if not removing them, then at least reducing exposure. The stocks count for a huge portion of many funds, so investors may have more exposure than they realize. The stocks have seen a massive run-up in valuation, but that makes them look increasingly vulnerable. Barron’s also cites the increasing risk of regulation of the sector, which could prove a weight on values.

FINSUM: The tech industry has grown very large and dominant, and seems to have its own cycle versus the rest of the economy, all of which makes it very hard to call a top. There are some dark clouds gathering on the horizon, but nothing looks like it is imminently going to bring the FAANGs down.

(New York)

The comment heard round the world seems to have been eating JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. Several months ago Dimon made the much publicized comment that Bitcoin was “fraud”. The CEO is one of the most respected on Wall Street and the comments have been the bane of the cryptocurrency for some time. However, speaking at a conference yesterday, Dimon said about his statements that “I regret making them”.

FINSUM: The funny part of about this new statement is that it was accompanied by several more veiled expressions of dislike for bitcoin, such as saying he is “not interested in the subject at all”.

(New York)

While logistics companies have understandably done well alongside the rise of ecommerce, FedEx might be poised to deliver something particularly special in the medium term. There are two big reasons why. The first is that the US postal service looks likely to raise its rates, which would make the margin between USPS and UPS/FedEx smaller, giving an edge to the latter. Additionally, FedEx has been investing heavily into upgraded distribution hubs which will give it a speed advantage over UPS. UPS, on the other hand, is just at the beginning of that process, so the recent status quo of UPS having higher margins looks set to end.

FINSUM: We think we might be entering a few golden years for FedEx, as their upgraded speed of delivery, combined with more competitive pricing, will be an “x” factor given the ever growing demand for quick delivery.

(San Francisco)

The tech industry seems to be at the very early stages of a crackdown by regulators. At this point the talk is mostly in media and amongst the public (a few Trump tweets aside), but the push is coming, both on the back of fake news and of anti-trust concerns. Well, there may be a much more immediate threat now. Apple may be facing a near-term regulatory crackdown as its own shareholders are calling for a study into the link between the iPhone and smartphone addiction, especially in children. Apple shareholders Jana Partners and Calstrs are calling for a study to see if the phones are addictive and what negative mental effects they may have on children. Some researchers believe the young have a serious metal health problem related to smartphones, with one academic saying “It’s not an exaggeration to describe iGen as being on the brink of the worst mental-health crisis in decades”.

FINSUM: So Jana and Calstrs, who are calling for this, say it is better to deal with the issue now rather than later and that doing so will provide value to shareholders. If regulations on smartphones actually come to pass, it could change the entire industry.