(Washington)

The market has been worried about trade for almost half a year now, ever since the rhetoric surrounding it began heating up in June. It has been a major factor in several volatility events in stocks, including in October’s big selloffs. However, a meeting this weekend has the potential to put those worries to rest. Alongside the G20 summit this weekend, Trump and Xi will meet for dinner to discuss the trade tensions between their countries.

FINSUM: Trump and Xi seem like two men that get along well personally, but have an immense amount of competing interests that they need to represent. That said, we have faith that good personal relationships can help bridge such differences. (e.g. see the Cold War)

(New York)

The Wall Street Journal says that wealthy New Yorkers are having a hard time believing that real estate prices are falling. After a decade long boom, they have difficulty believing home prices are actually dropping. Nonetheless, they are. Anecdotes abound, especially at the high end of the market, of residents losing millions even after ten-year holding periods. The big question home owners need to be asking themselves is whether New York is a bellwether of what is coming in US real estate, or whether it is just suffering from its own idiosyncratic problems.

FINSUM: In our view, this is mostly a unique-to-NYC problem. It is a combination of oversupply (from new builds), higher tax rates, lower demand from foreign buyers, and rising interest rates.

(New York)

Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, is a legendary name is investing. Not only did he found and grow one of the largest asset managers in the world, but he has a habit of being right when he predicts returns. Well, he has just made another prediction, and unfortunately it is not one investors will like. He thinks returns over the next decade are going to lag their historical levels badly. His forecast is that investors can expect a 1.75% net return with a 50%/50% stock-bond portfolio over the next decade.

FINSUM: If this call turns out to be right, it will have huge implications for retirees and pension funds, as “safe spending” rules and total returns for pensions will be devastated. That sad, we think forecasting that far out is all but useless.

(New York)

It would be easy to think that real estate is headed towards a buyer’s market. Inventory has been increasing, prices gains have slowed or disappeared, rates are rising, and prices are very high. However, despite all of this, many real estate experts think 2019 will still be a better year to be a seller than a buyer. The reason why is that inventory may only increase slightly, which will keep prices relatively high and not lead to massive price cuts like in the last housing downturn. A recession still looks a little way off, which could also insulate prices as the employment market stays tight.

FINSUM: We think the housing market is definitely going to see prices stay flat or fall next year, mostly because demand is falling as rates rise. However, we do agree that the bottom is not going to fall out by any means.

(New York)

Emerging markets have had a rough year, with a bear market taking hold. An “all clear” or false bottom has been called a number of times, which means investors need to be very wary of piling in. That said, an interesting signal is showing that emerging markets may be in for a turnaround. London-based Ashmore plc is a major asset manager focused on emerging markets, managing $76 bn in the asset class. Their shares are a bellwether for where EM assets may be headed. And lately, Ashmore has been doing very well. The shares are still down for the year, but rose for eight straight days through Wednesday, their longest winning streak since February.

FINSUM: This could be a sign that the tide is turning. As further evidence, the gains seen in Ashmore shares were not experienced by other asset managers, showing there is a clear differentiation.

(London)

Pretty much since the day it happened, the prospect of a second Brexit referendum has loomed large. Now, almost 2.5 years since the initial vote, it is becoming closer to reality. PM May’s universally panned Brexit deal with the EU is adding weight to efforts to hold another vote. A conservative MP (same party as Theresa May) has proposed a new vote in May, saying it would only take 22 weeks to prepare. The vote would have three options—stay in the EU, accept the May plan, or leave without a deal.

FINSUM: Critics of a second referendum argue that it is undemocratic to not abide the first vote. However, the action of leaving the EU is unprecedented, and the deal that Britain could get from the EU was completely unknown, so in our view, holding second referendum to decide on the actual terms is actually the most democratic option.

(New York)

One of the pillars of this nearly decade-long bull market has been the growing profits of US corporations. US stocks have seen their profit margins rise steadily since 2009 and are around a record mark of 10%. Analysts continue to forecast growth to around 12% in 2020. At the beginning of the 1990s, margins were just half of now. However, this narrative is fraught as just 10 stocks account for around 50% of all the margin growth in the S&P 500 since 2009. Those stocks? All tech, unsurprisingly. But what it means is that many other companies are not as healthy as many assumed, and as we enter a tougher era for margins, including higher labor costs, increased input costs, and higher interest costs, there could be some steep falls.

FINSUM: We think this is a reason to worry, as when margins really start to fall on the back of higher rates and costs, investors are going to be very alarmed.

(New York)

The DOL’s fiduciary rule may be gone for now, but it is a long way from dead. The rule will be taking a new form in 2019, and even now, its spirit lives on in the form of a number of state-based fiduciary rules. One such is in New Jersey. However, Wall Street is putting up a massive fight to block the rule. Financial Advisor Magazine puts it this way, calling it a Battle Royale and saying it is “pitting the nation’s largest Wall Street and broker-dealer associations against comparatively tiny fiduciary advisor and financial planning associations”.

FINSUM: We think if NJ passed a comprehensive fiduciary rule, it would probably give momentum to not only the DOL, but a number of other states which are working towards this or are on the fence about it.

(New York)

REITs are an interesting sector at the moment. The real estate sector is obviously past peak, and rates are rising, a double whammy for REITs. The initial reaction for many would be “stay away”, however, there is some value to be had. One interesting area is in regional mall REITs, which have actually outperformed the S&P 500 this year. There is a lot of variation in quality between different regional malls, however. In particular, the performance is bifurcating between the very best malls and the rest, with the former thriving, and the rest lagging.

FINSUM: The US has 1,000 malls and some estimates say there is only enough demand to solidly support around 300. The ones that stick around, particularly the top 20, will likely do very well.

(New York)

Here is an interesting fact for investors—municipal bonds tend to hold up well during periods of rising rates. The underlying tax benefits of the bonds mean their demand is well insulated even in such periods. The question is where to commit capital. Well, year-end tax loss selling is creating some interesting opportunities in closed end muni funds, says BlackRock. Some funds are selling at significant discounts to the NAVs, sometimes 10% or more. These funds tend to bounce back in the new year, which is called the “January effect”. The discount to NAV allows one to gain even if the prices of the underlying assets don’t budge.

FINSUM: Closed end muni funds look like a great place for some bargaining hunting until the end of the year.