(New York)

Where do you stand on airlines? Your opinion is worth about as much as the whole market’s—nobody is quite sure what to make of the future of air travel right now. Airlines had seen rising passenger numbers, but that has been tapering off as COVID cases have been rising again. Delta announced dreadful earnings yesterday, with revenue down 88% and net losses worth $4.33 per share. Thy also announced they were cutting their flight additions for August in half because of the rise in cases. The earnings come alongside a bleak announcement from United, which said “it's increasingly likely that travel demand will not return to normal until there is a widely available treatment or vaccine."

FINSUM: Have airline stocks come back too far? It looks there is likely to be at last another ugly 18 months as we await a vaccine.

(New York)

The market is split over dividend stocks. On the one hand, about half the market thinks the huge wave of dividend cuts are over and that most of the damage has been done. One the other, many worry that not all the deleterious effects of COVID have manifested themselves on corporate behavior and that further cuts may still be in the works. The overall picture seems to be one where caution is due given the big jump in valuations and the continued possibility of further cuts. For instance, bank and credit card companies look likely to cut further as high unemployment leads to worsening credit quality and more delinquency. Wells Fargo just announced a dividend cut, for instance.

FINSUM: Our thinking here is to be careful. Even if the economy does not have another lockdown, the full effects of this recession may take a little time to fully show themselves in dividend cuts.

(Washington)

The SEC’s new Reg BI rule has been in full force since June 30th. However, many brokers are still nervous about complying with the rule as the whole industry is still waiting on more practical guidance. Many firms feel reasonably comfortable following the principals of the rule, but certain items—rollovers being key among them—are still a little uncertain. The SEC has said it will take “good faith efforts” into account in this initial enforcement period, but that is not nearly as comforting as knowing you are following the letter of the law.

FINSUM: Given this is a whole new regulatory package and there is no historical precedent, anxiety is high. We expect new guidance will be issued soon.

(New York)

Investors are doing a lot of economic data analysis these days. As the economy picks up (for the most part) after the COVID lockdown, everyone is trying to guess the trend of the expansion. Well, in our search for new economic data, we found something that really stuck out to us as a positive: lumber demand. The whole lumber sector got hurt very badly in the first quarter as COVID shut down real estate construction. The collapse in demand led to a halt in production in the lumber industry. However, lumber demand for construction projects has come back faster than anyone anticipated and the supply chain cannot even keep up. Lumber prices rose 60% in the second quarter alone.

FINSUM: We think it is an excellent sign that builders and consumers have enough confidence in the economy and their financial positions to be able to create this kind of demand. V-shaped recovery?

(Washington)

It has not gotten much major media attention yet, but there is a big battle brewing between asset managers and the Trump administration. The reason why is a new rule proposal by the DOL which seeks to require private pension plan administrators to prove that they are not sacrificing client returns by putting money into ESG-oriented investments. The proposal was not some by-product or unintended consequence of a larger regulation, it was the point. In the words of Eugene Scalia, head of the DOL, “Private employer-sponsored retirement plans are not vehicles for furthering social goals or policy objectives that are not in the financial interest of the plan”.

FINSUM: In our opinion, this rule by the DOL is very out-of-step with current market trends. We totally understand the need for the DOL to protect retail investors, but Millennials and Gen Xers love ESG and will be the ones inheriting wealth soon. This seems heavy-handed.

(New York)

For those interested in dividend investing, REITs have always been a key area. While rate sensitive, they can also provide strong and steady income streams. REITs may seem particularly risky as a whole right now because of the ongoing reckoning in commercial real estate as a result of the pandemic, but there are still some good opportunities to be had. The reason why is that REIT dividends, which have fallen 20% since the beginning of COVID, have likely hit their floor. JP Morgan says “that the current 3.5% dividend yield for the REIT group should be sustainable at this point.” Some of JPM’s best REIT picks right now include Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN, yielding 7.6%), Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT, 5.5%), Welltower (WELL, 5%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW, 6%), and W.P. Carey (WPC, 6.3%).

FINSUM: As obvious as it is to say, in our view, the key to REITs right now is the area of real estate they focus on. Mall REITS—probably not, storage/industrial RETS—much better.

(New York)

Coronavirus cases across the country are surging. On Wednesday the US announced there were 62,000 new COVID cases, exceeding the record set the previous Friday by almost 5,000 cases. Some states, like California have actually started to reverse opening plans, not merely pause them as so many other states have. The huge surge in cases is leasing investors to fret that large-scale second lockdowns may be in the works. Anthony Fauci even openly said this yesterday, adding to fears.

FINSUM: Whether or not you think the case rise is just because of increased testing, the fact remains that as numbers soar, there is growing discourse about lockdowns. That is an undeniable risk to markets.

(Washington)

A top industry legal firm—HaynesBoone—has done a nice brief write-up about the new DOL rule. The piece summarizes the key components, including the five-part test and key exemptions. The new rule brought back the 1975 standard five-part test for determining who is a fiduciary. The test consists of:

1. Render advice as to the value of securities or other property, or make recommendations as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing, or selling securities or other property;
2. On a regular basis;
3. Pursuant to a mutual agreement, arrangement, or understanding with the employee benefit plan, plan fiduciary, or IRA owner;
4. The advice will serve as a primary basis for investment decisions with respect to the employee benefit plan or IRA assets; and
5. The advice will be individualized based on the particular needs of the employee benefit plan or IRA.

Now to the exemptions. According to HaynesBoone “fiduciaries may not (i) engage in self-dealing, (ii) receive compensation from third parties for transactions involving such plan assets, or (iii) purchase or sell investments with plans when acting on behalf of their own accounts. Provided the conditions of the exemption are met, the Proposed Exemption would allow investment advice fiduciaries to receive compensation for certain transactions that would otherwise be prohibited.” HaynesBoone continued “The Proposed Exemption would require investment advice to be provided in accordance with the “impartial conduct standards.” Under this standard, investment advice fiduciaries must provide advice that is in the retirement investor’s “best interest” (i.e., in adherence to the duty of prudence and loyalty), charge only “reasonable compensation,” make “no materially misleading statements,” and satisfy various other requirements, each as further described in the Proposed Exemption. The Proposed Exemption also requires certain disclosures be made to retirement investors, the implementation of certain policies and procedures, the performance of certain retrospective compliance reviews, and the adherence of recordkeeping obligations”.

FINSUM: This coverage makes it clear why this is such an industry-friendly rule versus the first iteration.

(Washington)

No matter which side of the aisle you are on, the last several weeks have not been great for the president’s reelection chances. While there are certainly a large portion of “silent” Trump supporters who will vote for him in November, the trends in the polls are not looking good. In particular, Trump seems to be losing ground in what is emerging as the biggest battleground of all—Florida. In 13 of the last 14 elections, the candidate who won Florida won the election. Based on how other key states are heading—Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin—it seems like Trump must win Florida to take the election. One Republican strategist in Florida said the trends in the state were not good, concluding that “Obviously the triple whammy of the virus, the pandemic-induced weak economy and the social unrest have taken a toll on President Trump’s poll numbers”.

FINSUM: Trump has strong support in much of the Latino community, which should help him. But his polls numbers for the state’s key 65+ population have been weak, seemingly as a result of the virus, which is working against him.

(Washington)

Democrats are pushing for more time with the new DOL rule. The party says that the 30-day comment period on the new DOL rule is insufficient for public comment. They argue that since the new rule is 123 pages itself and relies on thorough knowledge of the SEC’s 770-page Reg BI, 30 days is simply not enough time to fully digest and comment on the rule. In their words, “As the Obama Administration twice respected the requests of those who asked that the fiduciary rule comment periods be extended, we call on this Administration to do the same. At a minimum, we request the DOL provide an additional 60 days so as to give the public a more appropriate amount of time to consider the impact of such a significant proposal and better align this comment period with past precedents.”

FINSUM: Two industry perspectives here. On the one hand, going slow is not necessarily bad—who wants new regulations sooner? On the other, getting the rule done before Trump may leave office would be more beneficial to the industry than a new version that a new Democratic administration might propose.