(Houston)

Commodities are doing very well this year. Every big bank, including Goldman Sachs, thinks we may be starting a new commodities super cycle. The big question is exactly which commodities and who will be the big winners. Everything from food, to metals, to oil has been rising and this creates some clear winners, particularly producers of those commodities. That means a big windfall for countries like Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Chile, who are big net exporters of various raw materials. It is net importers that get hurt the worst, with an absolute behemoth—China—likely to suffer the most, as it is one of the largest buyers of commodities in the world. In fact, it almost single-handed drove the big commodities boom in the 2000s.

FINSUM: So the key here is picking the right emerging markets. Additionally, investors may want to double-think investing in oil, as production hikes could undermine prices quickly.

(New York)

For many years ESG had been a fairly neglected asset class. Advisors and many retail investors thought that investing capital with moral considerations would hurt returns. Over the years many things have changed, including investors learning that ESG screens have actually led to outperformance in many cases and younger generations showing that they care a great deal more about these issues than their parents. Well, those stimuli have led to huge growth in the ESG space, and are leading to big revenue gains for asset managers. Fund providers are able to charge significantly higher fees for ESG-focused ETFs because of their moral importance to clients, and this has led to good fee revenue in an industry that is otherwise seeing contraction.

FINSUM: The key thing to remember here is that ESG funds don’t cost any more to run, so this is highly profitable for asset managers.

(New York)

The ten-year treasury yield hit one year high at 1.6% on Friday, just after President Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package into law. Some are arguing that this is a new equilibrium for…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Boston)

The multinational biopharmaceutical company Amgen has agreed to terms to acquire Five Prime Therapeutics Inc. Amgen aims to improve its portfolio of…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Beijing)

The U.S. is set to ramp up its stimulus efforts as it passes the Biden Administrations' $1.9 trillion covid relief package. China, however…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(New York)

The Nasdaq is behaving very oddly and it should give investors pause. It is very rare for the Nasdaq and the Dow to be this out of sync. A couple days ago the Nasdaq outperformed the DJIA by 3.5%+, something it had not done in 20 years. Some take this as a sign of bullishness, but in reality, historical precedents say that when the Dow and Nasdaq are out of sync it is bad news. In fact, the only other time the two indices were this out of sync was the dotcom bubble.

FINSUM: The bottom line here is that major Nasdaq volatility in excess of Dow moves are not good. That means days like last Friday should be feared rather than celebrated. Stay vigilant.

(New York)

One of the challenges with annuities, whether as an annuities salesman or as an advisor explaining them to clients, is how to position them. The most fundamental utility of an annuity is the idea that it can provide income for life. In other words, the client can have peace of mind that they will have income even if they live to be 120. In this way, an annuity is not a market-based investment in the traditional sense, but rather it is an insurance contract. For advisors this concept will be second nature, but for clients this is not as clear. Accordingly, the main value of the annuity is not specifically in the income it provides, but in the risk mitigation it offers against very long lifespans for clients.

FINSUM: If you are active in annuities this might sound like a broken record; if you aren’t, it is a useful line of thinking. Either way, everyone needs to be reminded!

(New York)

Yields have been moving all over the place. And while there are daily moves higher or lower, there is a definitive bias towards sharp moves upward. Accordingly, investors need to be thinking about rate hedging. Investors are in a tough place as Treasury yield rises have been causing losses, but the bonds themselves still don’t have high enough yields to be attractive. With that in mind, there are a couple ways investors can go about protecting themselves. Firstly, they can buy floating rate bond-focused ETFs, which give protection but have very low yields. The other opportunity is to buy into bond funds that access riskier corners of the markets, where yields are much higher and durations are shorter, giving less rate sensitivity.

FINSUM: Our favorite ETFs for this purpose are from ProShares, specifically IGHG, which hedges rate risk but still offers the yield income.

(New York)

The market has been highly unpredictable of late, with big swings in both directions. While no one knows where the market is headed, one thing is pretty clear: there are a handful of big stocks that look very risky and should probably be avoided. Here is a full list: Carvana, Expedia, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Lyft, Restoration Hardware, Beyond Meat, FirstSolar, Zendesk, BioMarin Pharmaceuticals, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

FINSUM: Carvana and Expedia are the most interesting for us. Carvana is considered disruptive in auto buying and is up 535% in the last year. It is also losing money hand over fist, and its digital-first method of buying and delivery looks less and less effective as the economy reopens (especially because Carvana’s prices for consumers are high). Expedia is more simple: it is up big this year on hopes that travel bookings will recover strongly this year and next. But why is it currently trading at a 40% premium to the S&P 500? Doesn’t make sense to us.

(Houston)

Oil has been on a great run this year. Underlying crude oil, as well as ETFs like XLE, have been on fire of late, and most will have noticed the higher prices at the pump. A number of forces—like rising demand and tight supply—have been supporting the market, including OPEC lowering output. All of this has led one prominent bank, Piper Sandler, to say that oil is headed back to $100 per barrel, a level it has not seen in years. According to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, “I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here … To us, it looks like you could have more than 40% upside to get back to the old highs in 2018”.

FINSUM: It is worth noting that this is by far the most bullish call on the street. BAML and Goldman Sachs have their calls for this year at $67 and $75, respectively.