In an analyst note, JPMorgan’s Chief Equity Strategist Marko Kolovanic discussed the anomaly between an increasingly shaky market and economic outlook, in contrast to the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) which continues to trend lower. 

A week ago, the VIX dropped to 16 which is its lowest level since November 2021, despite the S&P 500 being 16% lower compared to 17 months ago. Yet, economic growth continues to decelerate, inflation is meaningfully higher, and the Fed remains in a hawkish posture. 

Kolovanic notes that we are not likely to see any abatement of these pressures in the coming months given the tightening of financial conditions and rising recession risk, while the Fed’s priority remains stamping out inflation even at the expense of the economy and labor market. Further, he notes stress in the banking system and drumbeat of rising tensions regarding China, Russia, and an upcoming election cycle.

He says depressed volatility is due to technical reasons, primarily the selling of short-term options which leads to dealer buying of stocks and volatility leaking lower. Adding to this is continued resilience in Q1 earnings while many were anticipating a meaningful decline. 

Finsum: Volatility is at 17 month lows despite stocks being much lower. JPMorgan’s Marko Kolovanic explains some reasons behind this discrepancy. 

Josh Schwaber discussed how model portfolios can help improve the client experience in a recent article for InvestmentNews. 

The biggest benefit is that it allows advisors more time to spend with clients to understand their needs and goals rather than portfolio management. After all, an advisors’ long-term success is dependent on retaining and attracting clients.

However, many clients fail at this critical step and don’t establish trust with their clients. Further, they aren’t successful at giving advice that applies to financial health from a holistic perspective and instead focus on investment recommendations. 

Model portfolios are a great solution to this dilemma as it allows advisors to spend more time on clients and their needs. They also allow advisors to grow their practices to a bigger size due to standardization and the consistent analytics offered by model portfolios. 

Further, model portfolios lead to less time spent on managing portfolios, yet there is no tradeoff in terms of returns. They allow advisors to leverage institutional resources, while still allowing for customization to account for a client’s specific goals. 

Overall, model portfolios allow clients to grow their practices to an even larger size with no tradeoff in terms of client service. 

Finsum: Model portfolios are an invaluable tool to help advisors grow their practice, while still maximizing time spent on understanding and serving clients. 

In an article for Financial Planning, Victoria Zhuang discussed the brisk pace of recruitment for financial advisors in the second-half of 2022 despite a volatile and challenging market environment. 

According to Diamond Consultants, there was a 12% increase in the number of experienced brokers who switched firms. This is a contrast to the typical pattern of advisor movement and recruitment slowing down in volatile conditions. 

In the first half of 2022, 4,249 experienced brokers switched firms which increased to 4,757 advisors moving in the second-half of the year. In total, more than 9,000 experienced advisors moved which was slightly more than 3% of overall advisors in the US. 

In addition, transition deals were much more generous in the past, indicating that the wealth management industry remains competitive and ambitious in terms of recruitment and growth. This is also reflected in the generous deals offered to entice movement with many signing deals paying more than 300% of 12-month revenue. Another noticeable trend is gains made by independent broker dealers, while the big banks continue to see outflows of experienced brokers to these smaller firms. 

Finsum: 2022 was a banner year for the recruitment of experienced advisors. This is in contrast to the typical pattern of muted recruitment during shaky markets.

In an article for the Globe and Mail, Tom Czitron shared some thoughts on why investing in alternative asset classes could get more challenging over the next decade. He defines alternatives as any asset that is not an equity, bond, or a money market fund.

The most well-known examples are hedge funds, private equity, natural resources, real estate, and infrastructure. Typically, there is low correlation with stocks and bonds which increases diversification and long-term returns. 

Yet, there are some challenges as returns can widely differ. Additionally, there is less coverage and data regarding the alternative investments unlike stocks and bonds where there is Wall Street coverage, regulatory disclosures, and publicly available information. For advisors, this means that more judiciousness is required in terms of selection. 

Another complicating factor is that alternative investments are generally illiquid. While this does likely contribute to the asset class’ enhanced returns, it means that funds cannot be easily withdrawn with long lock-up periods in many cases. An additional risk is that many alternative investments deploy large amounts of leverage which mean there is a greater risk of a blow-up in the event of a rate shock or bear market. 

Finsum: Alternative investments outperformed stocks and bonds over the last decade. Yet, there are some risk factors that investors need to consider.

A recent blog post by the UBS Chief Investment Office analyzed the performance of active fixed income managers in 2022. Given the rise in rates and challenging macro environment, it’s not surprising that there was a large dispersion in returns which rewarded active managers who were able to successfully navigate the turbulence. 

Another factor contributing to this dispersion was the outperformance of short duration bonds as compared to longer duration ones. Similarly, floating rate bonds also outperformed vs fixed rate. In municipal and corporate debt, higher quality outperformed lower quality. 

As a result, many active fixed income managers were able to outperform their benchmarks. However, there are some challenges when it comes to assessing active manager performance. Fro one, fixed income indices’ individual holdings are often illiquid and don’t reflect transaction costs. 

With these caveats in mind, there are still some important takeaways to consider. Active managers tend to perform better in less efficient markets, where there is more opportunity for alpha. Additionally, active managers tended to outperform when they had more flexibility to take advantage of various drivers of potential outperformance. 

Finsum: Active fixed income managers outperform vs passive indices in 2022. Here are some reasons why.

In an article for the Financial Times, Henry Timmons discussed the positive effects on bond market liquidity due to the increased proliferation and use of fixed income ETFs. 

In essence, the innovations that have already led to more liquid and transparent markets in stocks and commodities are now happening in the fixed income markets. Despite waves of financial innovation, the bond market has been slow to adapt until recently. 

Some reasons for this are capital requirements at large banks leading to less inventory of corporate bonds on dealer balance sheets, central banks vacuuming up massive swathes of government and mortgage debt, and market participants who were resistant to change.

However, this state of affairs is being disrupted by ETFs which trade on exchanges and have tighter bid-ask spreads than what is found in individual bonds. In fact, many now look at fixed income ETFs for price discovery due to these factors. 

Of course, there are some detractors who contend that liquid fixed income ETFs which hold illiquid bonds could lead to financial instability in the event of a market downturn. Yet, fixed income ETFs were resilient in 2022 which was the worst year for bonds in decades.

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are rapidly growing and having positive effects on bond market liquidity even if the underlying bonds remain illiquid.

In an article for Vettafi, James Comtois discussed some considerations of using direct indexing to build a portfolio. Direct indexing differs from investing in index funds, because the investor is directly owning the securities. It allows for greater customization to account for an investors’ desired factors, values, tax benefits, and concentrated positions.

The trend has accelerated in recent years, as it’s increasingly available to smaller investors. Between 2015 and 2021, direct indexing’s assets under management tripled. Yet, there are some complicating factors that need to be considered for clients and advisors.

An example is the frequency of tax-loss harvesting. Various providers of direct indexing differ in terms of conducting these turnovers on a daily, monthly, or quarterly basis. According to Vanguard, the higher the frequency of these scans, the greater the returns with a difference between 20 basis points to 100 basis points of alpha. 

Another consideration is the possibility of tracking errors. Vanguard estimates that tracking errors can lead to slippage between 75 and 275 basis points. As customization increases, the risk of tracking errors also increases. Therefore, investors need to weigh these downsides against the potential benefits.

Finsum: Direct indexing continues to gain in popularity due to it allowing for increased customization and tax benefits. Yet, there are some downsides to consider.

You strategize, financial advisors.

According to Fidelity Investments, the portfolios they’re putting together for clients reflect not only swelling caution but returning to diversification globally, reported investmentnews.com.

“This isn’t just about moving to cash when you sense trouble, we’re seeing allocations dialing up safety within the individual asset classes,” said Mayank Goradia, head of investment product analytics and strategy at Fidelity Institutional.

Among items that rose above the pack in Goradia’s report: a 32% average allocation to fixed income across all the model portfolios. That’s the highest level since the first quarter of last year. 

Meantime, here’s a regular Rubik’s cube of a process for you: turning the financial portfolio of a prospect – or existing client – to the recommended investment strategy, according to advent.com.

Hardcore diligence oversight along with the right tools, constraints – such as taxes and restrictions – can at least temporarily put the process on ice and, over time, take a portion of the client base off-model. The result: performance dispersion like investment goals.

Rain, shine or, well, active fixed income ETFs.

Point is, in light of tumultuous market conditions, it appears the time’s right for then to shine, said Jason Xavier, head of EMEA ETF Capital Markets, according to global.beyondbullsandbears.com.

“Active, active, active! Everywhere we turn, we are hearing that a new dawn is upon us, and it is once again the time for active management,” he said. “Many would be surprised that I totally agree. As outlined in my 2023 predictions, one could argue the decade of ‘cheap’ money and record-low interest rates has passed, and those skilled enough to navigate these volatile markets will certainly do well.

That said, he sees plenty of potential down the line: the dawn of the active fixed income In the ETF vehicle. The ongoing assumption that ETFs are solely passive vehicles? Mythical, said Xavier, noting ETFs are forever evolving. In doing so, they’re helping address developing investor needs. Not only that, a range of ETFs now are offered by asset managers.

With the reemergence of the chance for active management, one thing’s obvious, he noted: significant expansion should be in the cards for active ETFs—and in particular active fixed income ETF.

Meantime, in the aftermath of a topsy turvy time last year, Treasury yield is on a terrain unsees in well over 10 years, according to mfs.com.

The driver: higher as well as stickier inflation than anticipated, not to mention big time uncertainty revolving around the pace and depth of tightening by the central bank. Global markets absorbed a bruising. Income, today, has returned to fixed income.

In a Forbes article, Brian Hundler discussed the growth of alternative investing in recent years and the strong momentum for this nascent asset class. He attributes technology and the globalization of markets as major factors for making these investments available to a wider category. 

Alternatives investments encompass private equity, hedge funds, real estate, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. They tend to be less liquid and riskier but also have the potential for higher returns. For investors with a higher risk profile, they can certainly be part of a diversified portfolio. 

Many cite the past decade of zero interest-rate policy as the driving force behind the growth of alternative investing as it forced many investors to get creative and enhance risk in the search for yield. Another factor is increased demand for diversification as alternative investments have low correlations with traditional assets. 

The final piece in the growth of alternative investing is that technology has made these investments accessible to smaller investors, while they were only previously available to high-net worth investors due to logistical and regulatory hurdles. 

Finsum: Alternative investments are booming. Read more to find out why, and how it can enhance returns and diversification.