(New York)

One of the guiding ideologies of the bond market over the last few years has been to buy the dips. Every time that bond yields have risen some, it has been smart to go long bonds as they inevitably came back down. However, this time looks very different. The difference is that central banks are no longer fixed to their ultra-low rates policy, which means there is no big magnet that pulls rates and yields ever downward.

FINSUM: So in our view what is really happening right now is a market wide price discovery period for bonds. Because the underlying situation is changing, no one is comfortable judging bond yields and prices. This worry has spread to equities, but in our view the root anxiety is in fixed income.

(Washington)

The midterm elections are currently dominated by two incompatible assumptions. Democrats think Trump’s low approval rating and the rash of Republican congressional retirements will lead to a big string of victories for their party. Republicans hope that growing economic confidence, underpinned by the White House’s policies, will win out. The big X-factor is now the stock market, which has been gutted over the last few days, a fact which could rattle the economic confidence of Americans. Democrats need 24 seats in the House to take back a majority. Many suspect they will win 30.

FINSUM: Trump and the Republican party are up against history (the party of the President typically does poorly in midterms), and now possibly the markets and economy.

(New York)

While all the focus is understandably on stocks, Bitcoin is continuing to see a huge exodus of buyers. The market is now down to around $6,000, or about 70% from its peak of near $20,000. Bitcoin, and crypt currencies generally, have been brutalized by a number of regulatory announcements which seek to reign in the currencies. These include in South Korea—one of cryptocurrencies’ biggest markets, as well as by the SEC in the US, where chairman Jay Clayton has become a staunch enforcer.

FINSUM: We have been saying for months that there was simply too much regulatory risk to sustain the high valuations. That prediction has certainly proved right and we think it has further to run.

(New York)

We appear to be in the middle of a long-absent bout of volatility for both stocks and bonds. After a year of almost no volatility, all the major US indices fell strongly last week. The market is also off to a rocky start today. Now, Barron’s is arguing that this could be the beginning of an ugly ride. The reason why is that the recent trend of stocks and bonds being negatively correlated is ending. While for many years bond prices would rise when stocks fell, and vice versa, the opposite is happening now. Because the market fears rate hikes, bonds and stocks are falling in unison, with nothing to give the market comfort. For that reason, the “bond cushion” that has protected markets since the Crisis, appears to be gone.

FINSUM: The whole paradigm of markets is changing right now. Stock investors cannot simply flee into Treasuries as they have for years, which means there is little place a hide—a fact which could bring more serious losses.

(New York)

So we are a year into the presidency of one of the country’s biggest real estate developers. However, the reality is that a lot of uncertainty looms over the housing market. Between rising rates and the new less-interest-friendly tax package, the market is facing some headwinds. But analysts say that the biggest driver right now is that the uncertainty around the tax package is finally in the rearview mirror, which is allowing deals to go through which were previously on hold.

FINSUM: Our view is that the top end of the market, say $1m+ homes, are going to struggle a bit for a few years. The reasons why being the new limited mortgage interest deductions rules, and the fact that the Millennial generation, which will drive home buying, are not very wealthy yet.