(London)

The journey of Brexit has been long, winding, and utterly confusing at times. However, it is all headed for a dramatic conclusion. PM May has called for a Parliamentary vote on her plan on March 12, just a couple of weeks before the UK is supposed to formally depart the EU. However, the pushback on the left has been so strong that opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn now looks poised to call for a second referendum on EU membership. He announced the position yesterday, marking a major change in position.

FINSUM: We absolutely dismiss the view that holding a second referendum is “undemocratic”. The vote was almost three years ago now and no one could have foreseen the deal Britain might get, so it only makes sense to have another vote.

(New York)

Investors seem to have stopped worrying about it, but a recession is still in the cards. Ever since the Fed backed off, the market seems to have forgotten that we are likely at the very end of an economic cycle. However, most economists are differing from investors, as the majority are still calling for a recession by 2021. That is the view of over 75% of US business economists, with most still saying the Fed will continue hiking this year. 52% of those surveyed said a recession would start this year or next.

FINSUM: It is interesting to see how out-of-touch economists and investors are. A recession by 2021 sounds very reasonable to us, but the Fed continuing to hike this year does not.

(San Francisco)

Have you been upset about missing out on some of the big tech companies in the last decade? Well, your chance to buy in is coming; or at least that is what Wall Street’s bankers want you to think. A string of big tech IPOs appear to be in the works. From Lyft, to Uber, and featuring Pinterest, Airbnb, Slack, and WeWork, a big Silicon Valley roadshow is coming to the market this year and next. The major question is how the companies will fair once public. The tech market has been hurt recently, and public market valuations have been wounded.

FINSUM: These companies have massive private market valuations, and it seems like they will underperform a bit when they do finally debut (at least in the short-term). That said, a couple of them will likely turn into incredible long-term holds.

(Washington)

Several weeks ago the Fed slammed the brakes on more rates rises. The market has taken a deep sigh of relief to the tune of major gains in stock indexes. But within the pause is a more sophisticated, and perhaps more consequential, rethink of the Fed’s goals. The Fed is puzzled by weakness in inflation. With the labor market so tight, inflation should be rising strongly. Yet it has failed to reach the Fed’s two percent goal and appears to be weakening again. Accordingly, there are discussions going on internally at the Fed, about the disconnect and how to approach it.

FINSUM: There is a major question here—will the Fed revise its target higher and take a more aggressive approach to boosting the economy, or will it leave the target at 2% and be content. In either scenario, rates look unlikely to rise soon.

(New York)

One of the best ways to pick stocks is to look at insider purchases. When those in-the-know on a company are buying stock with their own money, it is a probably a good time to pay attention. Well, one well-known but dormant stock (in terms of insider purchases) just saw a significant move—Goodyear. One of the rubber company’s board members just spent about $650,000 to buy 35,000 shares of the company. There has not been an insider purchase that large at Goodyear since at least 2004.

FINSUM: We obviously don’t know the catalyst for this buy, but the chatter about how tire companies will benefit in the long-term from self-driving cars (i.e. more miles driven because it is cheaper to keep the cars moving than park them) seems like a strong fundamental.