(New York)

The market is in the worst shape it has been for some time, maybe the worst condition of the year. The S&P 500 fell over 3% last week on the combined news of a less dovish Fed and a huge tariff increase on China. Where things go from here is very uncertain, but JP Morgan is arguing that you should buy the dip. The bank’s strategists summarize their view this way, saying “Our core view remains that one should use the prospective weakness as an opportunity to add further, similar to the May experience. We continue to believe that global equities will advance further before the next U.S. recession strikes. We think that the growth-policy trade-off is far better now than it was in 2018”.

FINSUM: The market, economy, and politics are at quite a confusing point right now. Either things will gel to send prices higher, or it will all come crashing down like it did last year. Anyone’s guess.

(Houston)

The Chinese Yuan reached a landmark and worrying level today. It fell to below 7 versus the Dollar, marking its weakest point in 11 years. The weakening currency could help Beijing offset economic weakness from tariffs. “We will see a new wave of depreciation among Asian currencies in the foreseeable future, and there could be further risk-off movements in the global markets. It looks like a tsunami is coming”, said an economist at Commerzbank. This will have major implications for commodities as China is the world’s biggest consumer, and now that the currency is weaker, it will be harder to buy, meaning prices must come down.

FINSUM: Dollar prices for commodities (almost all are priced in Dollars) will need to come down commensurately with the Yuan in order for the Chinese to maintain their purchasing power.

(New York)

Retirement income is such an important aspect of a financial advisor’s job, that one could reasonably argue it is the main duty of the profession. With that in mind, here are a couple ways to create lasting retirement income for clients. The first tip is simple, and every advisor should know it—delay claiming Social Security until 70, which significantly boosts annual income. Social Security is uniquely built to help protect against many of the risks of retirement, with one specialist saying “It’s indexed for inflation, it protects against longevity risk, and if the stock market crashes, it doesn’t go down”. The second part of this two-part strategy is to invest like one is still young. Since once is more hedged by greater Social Security income, one can afford to be more aggressive in markets.

FINSUM: This is a good basic strategy, though it requires working longer and a good degree of self-control.

(Berlin)

The future of the EU is an open question, and one that seems to be growing bleaker once again. Much of the cultural mood that preceded Brexit is now taking hold in Germany. German media is angry at the ECB about robbing its savers of income with very low or negative interest rates. News outlets refer to the “expropriation” of German assets (a term with huge historical resonance). Altogether, the German people are angry about their wealth funding the rest of an EU they see as squandering it.

FINSUM: Germany has benefitted disproportionately from the Euro as it keeps their currency artificially weak. Yet it is also true that hard working Germans have been subsidizing the irresponsible finances of southern Europeans for years. It seems a way off, but Germany could be the next EU domino.

(New York)

The market is going through a fit, and it is entirely self-induced. Firstly, the Fed hit markets with an unexpected lack of dovishness earlier this week. Then, just a day after, President Trump did what many feared he would—he announced another large round of tariff hikes on $300 bn of Chinese goods. Many suspect the move is part of an effort to push the Fed into cutting rates after it downgraded its language to calling the trade war merely a “simmer”. Markets fell sharply on the news.

FINSUM: Trump is trying to push both China and the Fed. It will likely work with the former, as they don’t have much of a choice if the economy looks vulnerable, but this is certainly not going to help China get back to the table.