Displaying items by tag: russia

Investors, advisors included, seem to be wondering why the stock market has done quite well since Thursday morning when Russia invaded Ukraine. Many expected stocks to tumble—and they initially did—but the opposite has happened, with the S&P 500 up around 5% since the close of business on the 23rd. The reason why has everything to do with the Fed and interest rates. The market now thinks the Fed is in a bind and won’t be able to hike rates as fast as they would have been able to before the conflict. This would mean a slower stop of the easy money surge that has gone on for years. Markets are now only forecasting a 12.5% chance of a 50 bp hike in March.

FINSUM: Stocks have jumped as a simple reaction to the fact that the path of rate hikes looks less steep right now than it did a week ago, which is also why the tech-heavy Nasdaq has jumped the most.

Russia’s finance ministry is proposing the nations $191 billion dollar wealth fund adopt environmental, social, and governance principles in their investment selection. While this puts him inline with the Russian central bank, Russia’s Economic Minister, and the rest of the globe he might face opposition from Putin. ESG buys wouldn’t be adopted until 2024 at the earliest and would work towards the country’s 2060 goals of being carbon neutral, but currently Russia is far from those objectives. They are the world’s 4th largest greenhouse gas producer and Putin sees their energy production as key to their global powers.

FINSUM: Russia is planning to ramp up its oil and gas production in the face of the global shortage, so don’t expect them to jump all in on ESG too quickly.

(Houston)

Markets are plunging today, and the reason for the huge fall is the complete collapse of the oil market. The trouble is occurring because a price war is erupting in the oil market with Saudi Araba announcing that is was boosting production this morning. The move came as a response to Russia refusing to agree to production cuts to help insulate the market. The oil market responded by falling an eye-watering 30%. That immediately sent stocks plummeting too.

FINSUM: The market is doing its very best to compel Russia to agree to curb production. Surely a production cut wouldn’t cost them 30% of revenue!!

(Washington)

The Democrats are finally getting their time with Robert Mueller this week. Mueller is set to testify for a full five hours before the House Judiciary Committee and House Intelligence Committee on Wednesday. Democrats are seen as likely to push him to give further details on his investigation, especially into obstruction of justice claims, while Republicans are expected to probe him on bias within the FBI.

FINSUM: Everyone seems to agree—it is hard to imagine anything happening at these hearings that would change anyone’s mind.

(Washington)

The Mueller report was finally released this weekend, and the early indications are that there is nothing in it that proves any wrongdoing on the part of President Trump. Attorney General Barr’s summary to Congress, given yesterday, said there was no collusion between Trump and Russia and nothing in the report amounted to enough for a criminal charge of obstruction of justice. Trump called the report a “complete exoneration”.

FINSUM: So this is far from a “put to bed” issue because Barr’s credibility is under attack. Democrats are pledging to press on. However, one of the things we are very happy about in these divisive times is that the Mueller team had the discipline to take a clear position on the case and did not seek to inflate charges that were not really there in an effort to validate their own work.