Displaying items by tag: bubble

Homes in some pandemic boom towns are significantly overvalued, with Reventure CEO Nick Gerli predicting a steep decline in the Southern real estate market. Gerli estimates that home prices in the South could drop by 20% over the next few years due to a surge in new housing inventory and waning demand. 

Florida and Texas, in particular, are seeing significant price declines, with seven of the 10 cities experiencing the largest number of price drops. The region's housing market bears similarities to previous bubbles, with home prices having surged 50%-70% since the pandemic, while incomes have only risen 10%-20%. 

This imbalance could lead to a substantial correction, especially if the economy enters a recession or unemployment rates rise. Despite the current affordability crisis, Gerli believes that patient homebuyers could find good opportunities in the coming years as the market adjusts.

Finsum: It’s important to monitor these changes in housing, but keep in mind SFR poses a completely different problem set and these areas could still flourish.

Private equity markets, lacking transparent pricing, may be nearing a downturn despite their lack of observable bubbles. The influx of capital over recent decades has led to inflated valuations, with private equity assets soaring to $3.5 trillion by 2023. 

Rising interest rates threaten the industry, which thrived in low-rate environments, potentially leading to poor returns and capital shortages. Pension funds, heavily invested in private equity, face significant risks, impacting both retirees and taxpayers. 

The sector's rapid expansion could have long-term negative economic effects as it adjusts to new financial conditions. The deflation of the private equity market, although gradual, could still result in significant economic challenges.

Finsum: With a possible cut on the horizon there is still a possibility of sustainability. 

Buffer ETFs have surged in popularity among financial advisors aiming to placate nervous clients while maintaining their investment positions. Their widespread adoption has led to major expansion, from less than $200 million to $36.7 billion since 2018, according to Morningstar. 

Operating on the defined outcome strategy, buffer ETFs use equity options to mirror benchmark performance while offering downside protection in exchange for an upside cap within specific 12-month life cycles, available monthly or quarterly. 

Jeff Schwartz, president at Markov Processes International, underscores the importance of comprehending the intricacies of these vehicles, given the multitude of variables involved, and that the intricacies around the buffer and cap structure are pivotal. Advisors must carefully consider market conditions when purchasing buffer ETFs at any point during their lifecycle to prevent diluting the intended benefits. 

Finsum: Timing conditions are still important when it comes to buffer ETFs despite their built in protections.

The boom in credit inflows to ESG might be an obvious sign environmental risk isn’t actually priced in. Coal companies have got credit ratings boosts, mortgage increases in flood zones, and a myriad of other issues. These are all signals that risks aren’t properly priced into fixed income markets according to Tom Graff of Brown Advisory. Natural disasters are becoming more frequent yet greenwashing keeps this from accurately being a factor in ESG. However, there is an advantage for investors to take advantage of mispricing, if disasters isolate countries energy independence could be underpriced in many countries around the world, the anti-Russia position.

Finsum: Fixed income regulators are could be turning a blind eye to sources of credit risk which investors might be able to exploit in the early days of greenwashing.

Environmental, social, and governance investing have been one of the largest sources of outperformance in the last two years, however, a mis-selling scandal could be coming to ESG investing. Most investors know mis-selling scandals from PPI, endowment mortgages, and diesel cars. ‘Greenwashing’ is not new by any means but high-profile cases with DWS and BlackRock are both escalating. BlackRock whistleblower Tariq Fancy said this could just be the beginning and that a combination of marketing hype and false promises could cause more scandal in the upcoming years. The difference will be if funds are on the hook for the language they put forth and that the Paris Agreement could be critical to holding them accountable.

Finsum: ESG investing could be reaching its peak performance, time will tell howgGovernments begin the crackdown.