Credit rating agency Moody’s Investor Service, has issued a warning to investors that the debt poses ‘systematic risk’. The factors that Moody’s sees sourcing that risk is an opaque market, eroding lending standards and liquidity concerns. Private credit has seen a flood of inflows this year to venture capital, private equity, real estate and infrastructure as the industry is more robust to the pressures from the mainstream economy on traditional bonds and equity. However, the risks in the medium sized boutique bond market are hard to capture because they fall in regulatory limbo and could cause broader economic disruption. Finally private equity relies heavily on leverage and while that's fine for the time being, it may pose serious structural issues for the illiquid market as interest rates begin to normalize.

FINSUM: The 2008 financial crisis was primarily driven by the rise of the lesser regulated shadow banking industry. Private credit’s swell is very reminiscent of the housing bubble creation.

Headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, rose at a staggering 4.4% annual growth at the end of September, which is the highest number posted since 1991. This isn’t necessarily the Fed’s preferred inflation metric because food and energy prices are more volatile than other areas, but even excluding those categories core inflation was at 3.1%. On top of that, personal income is down almost 1%, which makes that inflation gain even more painful. Policy makers are worried about overall economic health as stagflation becomes a real possibility with GDP coming in at just 2%, the weakest quarter since the recovery started. Treasury Secretary Yellen says that yearly inflation will remain high but she expects monthly inflation to come down as the year closes, with headline figures coming down towards the target of 2%. On the positive side, wages and salaries kept up this month, hitting 4.6% but that still poses challenges for the labor market in its own way.

FINSUM: Inflation is still posting strong gains but keep your eyes on the monthly annualized numbers to gauge if what Yellen says is accurate.

It was fun and games when GSA Capital’s Chris Taylor was investing in the crypto craze and run up in ‘doge coin’, but now GSA is all-in in strategic crypto trading. The $2.6 billion hedge fund sees profits in the early development of crypto as swelling hype and volatility will generate inefficiencies. Taylor is Cambridge-trained mathematician and will be part of the crypto research team. GSA was launched at the trading desk in Deutsche Bank, and they will continue arbitrage strategies with crypto. By shorting derivatives and going long on the spot they will continue their history of arbitrage, and further capitalize on crypto’s 40% swell already in 2021.

FINSUM: Quantitative strategies are ripe for exploiting less liquid, less developed markets like crypto.

Inflation has been a point of contention as of late, as central banks are signaling it’s driven by the supply side constraints, and others are believing this is driven by the central bank practices themselves. Goldman Sachs chimed in saying they see 2021Q4 inflation number at 4.3% but that trailing off to 2.15% by 2022. The higher inflation in the intermediate means that the economy is at a significant risk of a right hike in early 2022. Sachs places themselves on the supply side of the debate however as semiconductor manufacturing picking up and increased imports in furniture and other consumer goods will drive down prices. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Jack Dorsey took to his own platform twitter to warn of hyper-inflation which sparked its fair share of social media controversy.

FINSUM: Inflation expectations are running pretty high historically, but surveys are really a poor metric, the TIPS market for example is predicting much more stable inflation.

2001. I was in the middle of the worst bear market in my career. After nearly a decade of enormous growth, the economy was self-correcting. Panic started March of 2000, and there didn't appear to be any let up with selling....see the full story on our partner's site