Displaying items by tag: stocks

(San Francisco)

The market has become very worried about tech valuations. Even with recent selloffs, tech stock prices are very rich. However, despite the broad fears, some fund managers are ditching the concerns, as they think the obsession with P/E ratios is short-sighted for tech. In particular, one manager says that he likes to think about how tech companies will look as mature businesses, and thus judging them by their current P/E ratios is unfair.

FINSUM: We agree that it is hard to assess tech stocks according to standard P/E ratios. They are growing much faster, have much higher margins, and have a brighter future than stocks in any other sector of their size. Accordingly, it is hard to contextualize their P/E ratios because there is no benchmark.

(Washington)

Late last week President Trump announced a new idea that would be a major change for US markets. Trump requested that the SEC look into whether the US should abolish the quarterly earnings reporting requirement. The president says he is hoping the US can move to twice-a-year reporting instead of the current model of reporting four times. He says he got guidance from top business leaders before his request and that he thinks it would improve the US’ business environment.

FINSUM: The big hope here is that by reporting earnings half-yearly, companies would be able to be more strategic in their focus and less obsessed with short-termism. We would welcome the change, but it would have some risks, and we hardly think a six-month focus is “long-term”.

(Washington)

Some very interesting news about Tesla emerged yesterday. While it was already known that the SEC had subpoenaed Tesla over Elon Musk’s recent tweet about taking the company private, it emerged yesterday that the company was already the subject of an SEC investigation into whether it had misled investors. In particular, the SEC is probing whether Tesla misled the market with its Model 3 production forecasts. The actual production of vehicles last year was woefully short of the company’s forecasts.

FINSUM: Musk’s actual delivery of vehicles was just 10% or so of his initial forecast, which is likely what sparked the investigation. However, this is apparently a very difficult case for the SEC to prove, so it seems unlikely to amount to much.

(New York)

Tesla is a hard stock to figure at the moment. No one is quite sure how likely it is that the company will be taken private at $420. Many are trying to handicap the odds, with Barron’s guessing they are less than 50%. The stock has given up much of the initial gains it got from Musk’s fateful tweet, but the big question is where it will go next. The answer is that it likely won’t move much until there is more information to digest. The SEC is investigating the company, but there is little word on any potential deal.

FINSUM: We think Tesla is going to be quite banded until more information about a potential deal comes out.

(New York)

If you hold luxury retail stocks or are thinking of doing so, think again. With all the fears over a trade war, many luxury stocks look vulnerable. While Gucci owner Kering and Louis Vuitton owner LVMH look insulated, look out for weakness in Burberry, Salvatore Ferragamo, and Swatch. The first two look particularly weak because they are trying to regain traction with consumers at the same time as facing trade tensions (as opposed to Gucci, which is very hot at the moment). Most luxury stocks are currently trading at a premium relative to the market.

FINSUM: In our view, the brands that are already hot are going to stay on the shelves, but ones that haven’t been selling as well will be more impacted by trade tensions as wholesalers can more easily just stop stocking them.