Displaying items by tag: rate cuts

The S&P 500 closed above 6,400 for the first time ever, driven by a broad stock market rally following fresh inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 500 points, the S&P 500 gained 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4%, with both indexes ending at record highs. 

Small-cap stocks surged as well, with the Russell 2000 jumping almost 3% on renewed optimism for a September Fed rate cut. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed core inflation rising 3.1% year over year in July, while headline inflation held steady at 2.7%, slightly below expectations. 

Markets now see a 94% probability of a rate cut, helping boost risk assets across the board. In corporate news, Intel shares rose over 5% after CEO Lip-Bu Tan met with President Trump, who praised Tan’s leadership despite having called for his resignation just a week earlier.

Finsum: Keep an eye out for multiple cuts this year, and surging equities despite a sluggish economy. 

Small-cap stocks, typically valued between $250 million and $2 billion, are regaining popularity among investors after years of underperformance. Economic growth plays a significant role in this resurgence, as smaller firms tend to benefit more from increased consumer and business spending. 

Additionally, the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are expected to lower borrowing costs, a crucial factor for small businesses that rely heavily on credit. Another driver of renewed interest is valuation—many analysts believe small caps are undervalued compared to their larger counterparts. 

For investors seeking exposure while mitigating risk, small-cap ETFs like Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF (VBK), iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF (ISCG), and Invesco S&P SmallCap Momentum ETF (XSMO) offer diversification and professional management. 

Finsum: With economic growth in recent quarters, small caps may continue to gain traction in the coming years.

The Fed’s recent rate cuts are reshaping the landscape for fixed annuities, bringing both challenges and opportunities for investors. Fixed annuities, which offer guaranteed returns unaffected by market fluctuations, remain steady for existing contracts but may see reduced rates for new purchases in a lower-rate environment. 

This could lead less risk-averse investors to consider alternatives like variable annuities or registered index-linked annuities for potentially higher returns. Despite these shifts, the core appeal of fixed annuities—income guarantees and stability—remains intact, making them valuable for conservative financial strategies. 

Rate cuts, while altering some dynamics, do not diminish their long-term benefits, such as tax deferral and customization for individual goals. 

Finsum: Advisors need to be aware of how the different annuity structure is affected by the various interest rates cycles, in order to serve clients. 

Earlier this year, PIMCO cited expectations that the Fed would start a series of rate cuts as one of its reasons to be bullish on fixed income. The asset manager is revising this view given the lack of progress on inflation and now sees rate cuts being delayed until the end of the year or even into 2025.

Following the latest FOMC meeting, PIMCO sees the Fed pursuing a policy similar to the 1990s, when the Fed held rates and allowed inflation to trend lower over time. Fed officials seem wary of the downside risks of further tightening and are willing to concede higher inflation in the near term. 

Despite a recent uptick in inflation, the Fed seems content to hold rates at steady levels. During his press conference, Chair Powell remarked that monetary policy was restrictive and that rates could be lowered if the labor market weakened. He added that a rate hike was ‘very unlikely’ and that the inflation in resurgence could be temporary due to seasonality and noise. 

While fixed income rallied following the FOMC meeting, PIMCO expects FOMC members to raise their inflation forecasts from 2.6% to 3% for core PCE at the upcoming meeting. The firm also sees an increased risk of no rate cuts this year if inflation data comes in closer to 3% than 2%.

Finsum: Following the latest FOMC meeting and hot inflation data, PIMCO is lowering the odds of a Fed rate cut in 2024. 

Entering the year, there was optimism around real estate stocks given consensus expectations of rate cuts due to inflation falling to the Fed’s desired level and a weakening economy. However, the economy has defied skeptics and remains resilient, while inflation is plateauing at higher levels. As a result, the Fed will be less dovish than expected, and the market has tapered back expectations for rate cuts to between 1 and 2 by year-end. 

Another consequence of the data is that mortgage rates are trending back to last year’s highs, with the 30Y at 6.9%. The real estate sector sank lower following last week’s inflation report, led by self-storage companies, office REITs, and homebuilders on the downside. 

Over the past month and YTD, the Real Estate Select SPDR Fund (XLRE) is down 4.6% and 7.8%, respectively. The current environment of rates at a 23-year high is clearly a major headwind. And there are no indications that the status quo will meaningfully change until there is improvement in terms of inflation or more damage to the economy. The impact is evident in terms of Fed futures. At the start of March, odds indicated more than a 50% chance that there would be four or more rate cuts by the end of the year. Now, these odds have plummeted to 5%. 

Finsum: Real estate stocks have sunk lower in the last month, along with the odds of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. As long as ‘higher for longer’ persists, there will be considerable stress for the weakest segments of the real estate market.