Displaying items by tag: macro

American consumers are increasingly uneasy about the economy, as reflected in multiple sentiment surveys. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in February, marking its third consecutive decline amid rising inflation expectations. 

Small businesses and homebuilders are also voicing concerns, with uncertainty reaching record levels among independent business owners. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation expectations, as shifts in consumer sentiment could influence spending behavior and long-term price stability. 

While consumer confidence doesn’t always predict spending, a new Wells Fargo survey suggests many Americans, particularly younger generations, plan to cut back due to economic uncertainty. 

Finsum: Rising costs for essentials like dining out, fuel, and entertainment are prompting noticeable changes in financial habits and part of weakening sentiment.

Emerging markets have faced a challenging year, but they remain essential for achieving greater portfolio diversification. According to insights from the Natixis 2025 Institutional Outlook Survey, many institutional investors anticipate robust growth in these markets next year, with monetary policy shifts expected to play a significant role in driving expansion. 

However, China’s economic struggles, including a weak real estate market and reduced consumer spending, have tempered enthusiasm, leading investors to focus on other opportunities. India is gaining traction as a standout emerging market, with many predicting it will surpass China as a top investment destination, while regions like Asia ex-China and Latin America are also drawing attention. 

Though uncertainties persist, adopting a long-term approach to investing in emerging markets can yield strong growth potential as global economic conditions evolve. This strategy allows investors to tap into the transformative opportunities these markets continue to offer.

Finsum: With high risk and growth opportunities, its important to caution clients on the risks and that term is baked into the picture. 

The U.S. economy remains robust, with Bank of America economists projecting annualized growth of 2.4% in 2025, surpassing consensus estimates. Despite uncertainties tied to President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration restrictions, the U.S. is seen as better equipped than other nations to handle potential economic shocks. 

Trump's tariff agenda, while inflationary and potentially disruptive, would likely have greater global repercussions than domestic ones, reflecting the U.S. economy's resilience. Key indicators, such as high consumer confidence, strong retail sales, and moderated inflation, highlight the country's economic strength. 

Bank of America maintains optimism, predicting that any tariffs implemented will be less severe than campaign promises and that a full-blown trade war can be avoided. 

Finsum: We are not seeing the same resilliance around the globe and this could draw additional investments. 

The federal reserve is holding steady with interest rates, at least at the current time, but other central banks around the globe are cutting and other hiking, creating opportunities in fixed income. While this is certainly adding a level of depth to portfolio management that hasn’t been present often in the last decade, high yields indicate great returns in fixed income.

According to Goldman Sachs investors should consider upping their exposure to high quality fixed income, emphasizing active management due to unpredictable US monetary policy. Despite expectations of rate cuts, recent inflation data suggests a "higher for longer" environment, meaning higher rates may persist. 

As a result, US equities may still be attractive, but some investors are shifting towards fixed income to capitalize on strong yields, particularly in high-quality investment-grade bonds and structured products.

Finsum: Active investors continue to have an edge with disparate monetary policy actions around the globe. 

According to panelists at the SALT conference, private credit will continue to experience strong growth over the next few years. Additionally, they believe that reports of banks stepping in to more aggressively compete with private credit lenders are overblown. Instead, there’s more likely to be partnerships between private credit investors and banks in terms of originating deals and arranging terms.

Michael Arougheti, the co-founder and CEO of Ares Management, sees private credit compounding at an annual rate of 15% for the next decade. He sees growth driven by cyclical and secular factors such as companies staying private for longer, the current high-rate environment, and many ‘good’ borrowers with weak balance sheets. Another factor is the billions being raised for private credit funds across Wall Street. 

Panelists also agreed that there are many selective opportunities in fixed income and credit at the moment. And more opportunities should emerge over the next year, especially with rates staying higher for longer. Arougheti believes that there will be more opportunities created by the lack of liquidity. This underscores another difference between the current environment and past cycles for distressed debt - weakness is not sector-specific, rather, it’s more rate-induced. 

Finsum: At the SALT conference, panelists agreed that despite headlines, private credit markets will see strong growth over the next few years. They also see more attractive opportunities emerging given high rates and limited liquidity.