Displaying items by tag: earnings
In a recent Business Insider article, Charles Schwab is warning that stocks could see more volatility through the rest of this year, as we head into what the firm considers a weak earnings season. The company believes that more companies could miss earnings estimates in the following quarter, using FedEx as an example. The transportation firm slashed its earnings guidance last week in what is expected to be a sign of things to come for the rest of the S&P 500. In a note on Monday, analysts stated, "We believe the weakness in expected earnings growth is early in its trip to an ultimate negative (year-over-year decline) destination." Analysts also noted that the rate at which S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations fell to 5% last quarter. This compares to over 20% in the middle of 2021. The company noted that the trend could be even lower in the third quarter as earnings reports come in. Excluding the energy sector, Schwab estimates that earnings growth in the S&P 500 will shrink by 2% over the third quarter, down over 11% from June.
Finsum:Analysts atCharles Schwab are warning of more stock volatility as we head into a weak earnings season.
Analysts at Jefferies are warning investors to avoid small-cap tech stocks due to their high valuations and falling earnings and revenue estimates. In a note, analysts said that their current valuations of 3.4 times sales are not cheap compared to their long-term average of 2.1 times sales. They believe there are “too many nonearners” and then tend to perform poorly when the Fed is hiking interest rates. However, the analysts aren’t telling investors to avoid small-cap stocks altogether, as they like names in the healthcare and consumer-discretionary sectors, which have been outperforming. Analysts stated that valuations in healthcare stocks haven’t jumped as much as their stock performance. Plus, mergers and acquisitions have picked up in the healthcare sector, which the analysts believe could help drive performance. They also believe that discretionary stocks are the cheapest sector in the small-cap range and they tend to outperform when coming out of bear markets.
Finsum:Jeffries analysts are warning investors to steer clear of small-cap tech stocks due to high valuations and falling earnings and revenue estimates.
Equities have rallied, inflation is falling in the month of July, and global gas prices seem to be easing; investors can shake off the volatility concerns, right? Not just yet. Volatility experts Paul Britton founder of Capstone Investment Advisors told the FT that we aren’t through the weeds just yet as the corporate debt crisis looms at the end of 2022. Britton says there is a significant repricing as companies might struggle to pay off high corporate debt with rising interest rates. Capstone looks to profit on increasing volatility as they are a considerable hedge fund, but the VIX is still falling below its long-run moving average for the first time in four months. Fed experts like Mary Daly, president of the SF Fed branch, say the inflation battle hasn’t been won yet, signaling more rate hikes may be needed to bury inflation.
Finsum: Failing to consider the fact that inflation favors borrowers, real borrowing costs on corporate debt have decreased considerably.
Technology stocks ticked up late this week which was refreshing as they have suffered since November when the Nasdaq crept to an all-time high. Rising bond yields fueled the devaluation in technology stocks because as the yield curve steepened this lowers the relative value of future cash flows which are the foundation of growth stocks. Additionally higher inflation also devalues those future earnings. However, the yield curve stagnating was enough to boost the Nasdaq by 3%. Additionally, most tech companies have surpassed expectations on earnings despite headline numbers from Meta.
Finsum: It might not take too many rate hikes to put inflation back in its place which means tech could be undervalued!
The European Stockxx 600 was up .5% on Friday driven by earning releases in the banking sector. That trend followed around the globe as Asia-Pacific’s Taiex index boosted 2% and Wallstreet’s S&P was up 2%. It was strong financial earnings in U.S., and semiconductors in the East pushing the Taiex. All of this happens as inflations concerns continue in the U.S. as consumer prices rose 5.4% on the year, but the Euro areas are seeing the opposite results as monthly inflation was negative in France. The common price thread is definitely in energy prices as Brent crude hit $84.40 a barrel.
FINSUM: The trickling earning reports have generally exceeded expectations. That trend looks to continue, and global portfolios are not only diverse but are outperforming.