Displaying items by tag: bull market

(New York)

Bonds have been in a bull market for the entire living memory of almost everyone in the financial industry. Yields are extremely low, prices are high, and stocks are peaking every week. Even if you are worried about bonds, the odds that they keep rising seem strong given some undeniably supportive factors. Those include a Fed that not only says it has no intention of hiking rates, but is actually undertaking a stealth form of QE by buying $60 bn of Treasury bills every month to make sure the financial system has adequate cash reserves.

FINSUM: Everything in the market is pointing to a repeat of the post-Crisis market paradigm—ultra-low rates, rising stocks. Should we expect a different outcome this time?

(New York)

The market had gone an incredible 70 days without a closing gain or loss of more than 1%. It was one of the longest streaks in history, but it all came crashing down this week as the Dow fell 1.6% and the Nasdaq fell 1.9%. The big question is what happens next. Generally speaking, it does not matter if a long streak of placidity is broken by a positive or negative move—stocks tend to keep doing well either way. Of the 12 times such a streak has happened, in 9 of the them gains were positive over the following year, with an average increase of 9.6% on a total return basis.

FINSUM: This is good historical context, but it is important to remember that none of those occurrences have anything to do with today’s market environment. That said, we remain bullish.

(New York)

For around a year now, the yield curve has been scaring investors. The inversion of the curve sent a grave warning sign to the market that a recession may be on its way. Many investors fled the market for fear of a big reversal. However, as we enter 2020, the yield curve is sending a very different signal—optimism. The curve is at its steepest level since October 2018, showing investors’ increasing confidence in the US economy. One CIO described the situation this way, saying “If the stock market is right that everything is amazing, I don’t see how long rates can stay as low as they are … The stock market is rallying on hope. Hope that things will inflect higher with this trade deal and Fed accommodation”.

FINSUM: If there is one thing we have learned in the last decade, it is that the Fed does not want to over-hike on rates. Overall, we think this is a very healthy direction for yields.

(New York)

If your natural instinct is to worry about a looming recession, you are not alone. Logic dictates that with the economy and bull market having been rolling for so long, a downturn is inevitably around the corner. However, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank is making the exact opposite argument. Torsten Slok contends that the economic expansion will likely go on for “many more years”. His explanation: “The lack of willingness to spend on consumer durables and corporate capex is also the reason why this expansion has been so weak … And it is also the reason why this expansion could continue for many more years; we are simply less vulnerable to shocks in 2020 because there are few imbalances in the economy”.

FINSUM: We don’t dislike this view, but in our opinion the artificially low interest rates maintained by the Fed have much more to do with the length of this recovery (and its future prospects), than financial conservatism amongst businesses and consumers.

(New York)

If it seems like value investing is dead, it is because it almost is. Even major adherents have moved away from the practice as growth stocks have greatly outperformed value stocks for so long. The growth sector has been led by large tech companies for the last several years, and many are wondering whether the gains can keep going. The answer, according to Credit Suisse, is “yes”. The bank has put out a piece reminding investors that in late stage bull markets growth stocks can often hit P/E multiples of 45-60x. The sector is currently only trading at 28x earnings. Credit Suisse singled out Microsoft and Raytheon as good cheap picks.

FINSUM: The optimism has been building in markets, so it would not be far-fetched to think a big late cycle run could be in the cards for growth stocks.