Displaying items by tag: bull market

(New York)

Investors have been waiting anxiously for a downturn in stocks for several months. In recent weeks the nervousness had risen as we had seemed to reach a period of “melt up”. However, the market has fallen considerably over the last couple of days, including the S&P 500 falling over 1% yesterday. The question is whether the tide is finally turning following the rise in concern over surging bond yields.

FINSUM: This was a pretty scary couple of days, but we have a feeling this is not the beginning of the end given strong earnings coming out.

(New York)

If behavioral finance has taught us one thing, it is that losses hurt the human mind more than gains help it, and that truth might be behind why the market has been so resilient over the last year. Despite major turmoil in domestic and international politics, stocks have been rock steady and very strong, with many consistently “buying the dip”. Well Barron’s argues the reason for this behavior, and in turn, why the market has done so well, has to do with this concept—that investors have so many gains from past years that they feel like they are “playing with house money”, or that they have little to lose because they are only risking gains.

FINSUM: Evidently, research suggests that people are more likely to take risks with capital they consider “house money” than with their own money, which could explain the almost inexhaustible “buy the dip” mentality.

(New York)

The stock market is rich, with prices sky high and valuations closing in on their historical peak. The conundrum, though, is that while there is a lot risk, there may yet still be a long way for the market to rise before falling. How to play it? The answer is the options market. Because the incredibly long period of low volatility, options prices are very low, which means if one uses a solid options strategy, there is a potentially inexpensive and effective way to play the market.

FINSUM: This seems like a smart way to play further upside, while keeping costs down, especially if you are already long stocks to a major degree and want to take some chips off the table.

(New York)

The media and many bond market gurus would have you think the ceiling is caving in on bonds. Talk of a massive bear market, surging inflation, and big losses abound. How to make sense of it all? The answer, if there is one, is that reversals in rate environments tend to take a long time, and have historically lasted 2-3 decades before reversing back. Therefore, bond yields may continue to climb steadily, but this shouldn’t be bad for the stock market, so big losses may be avoided. In fact, slowly rising rates can spark structural bull markets. It would also be helpful for pension funds to have higher yields as they could be safe in assuming better returns, helping fund the huge national pension deficit.

FINSUM: We just are not that worried about bonds. The Fed still seems fairly timid, there is high natural demand for yields because of demographics, and inflation and growth aren’t all that strong.

(New York)

Some of the biggest names in bonds are making a bold proclamation that all investors need to hear—that the 30-year bond bull market is over. Both Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach are saying that with Treasury yields rising—currently sitting about 2.5% on ten-years—the bond market has entered a new phase. Gundlach says we are entering an era of “quantitative tightening”, which will cause losses for bonds. Gross says the bear market was confirmed when 5y and 10y Treasuries crossed 25y trend lines recently.

FINSUM: We may very well be entering an era of tightening, but that does not mean it will necessary be a brutal bear market, especially with the demographically-driven demand for bonds. Additionally, with the economy going very well, a recession could be coming, which would ease the tightening.