If it seems like value investing is dead, it is because it almost is. Even major adherents have moved away from the practice as growth stocks have greatly outperformed value stocks for so long. The growth sector has been led by large tech companies for the last several years, and many are wondering whether the gains can keep going. The answer, according to Credit Suisse, is “yes”. The bank has put out a piece reminding investors that in late stage bull markets growth stocks can often hit P/E multiples of 45-60x. The sector is currently only trading at 28x earnings. Credit Suisse singled out Microsoft and Raytheon as good cheap picks.
FINSUM: The optimism has been building in markets, so it would not be far-fetched to think a big late cycle run could be in the cards for growth stocks.
Deutsche Bank has just gone on the record with a bold prognostication. The bank says that the global economy is “bottoming out”. While that may sound grave without further context, what Deutsche actually means is that the global economy has already seen the worst of the current downturn. The bank expects that the world’s economy will be improving next year, meaning we may have finally turned the corner on slowdown fears. “Key to our optimism is that the risks of trade wars and Brexit are evolving in positive ways, and the possibility of a radical policy shift to the far left in the U.S. and the U.K. after their respective elections seems remote”, says Deutsche Bank’s research team.
FINSUM: So did we just go through a “recession” and now the economy and market are ready to turn the jets back on? Quite optimistic (especially after a 25% gain in the S&P this year), but not altogether unlikely.
Is the bull market winding down? Most people seem to think that is inevitable after such a long run. However, there are some contending the bull market could go on for years. The argument comes from Ciovacco Capital Management, which contends that by analyzing historical charts, the stock market looks poised for another breakout out, especially considering the Brexit deal, the US-China “phase one deal”, and the generally buoyant mood on Wall Street. Ciovacco says worries about China have been the biggest drag on performance, but that a lot of progress has been made, and one more piece of good news, such as the delay of December tariffs, could spark a big run by igniting “animal spirits”.
FINSUM: This is obviously highly speculative. However, it is a decent 30,000 foot view of where the market stands right now.
It has been a rough several month stretch for stocks and no one seems to have a clear view on where things are headed. All the same fears dog the market now just as they have all year, but at the same time, there seems to be some bullish indicators. Economic signals have been much better recently, which could support a longer bull market. Additionally, so much bearish sentiment has built up that it seems like the market is poised for a big move higher. Finally, the sideways action of the market seems to point to another move higher. Some think the sideways move over the last several months means that this cycle has seen its peak. On the contrary, though, usually late stage bull markets move higher right before an economic downturn.
FINSUM: The market was flat for over a year right in the middle of the bull market and then took a huge move higher. Same situation?
In what we see as an encouraging sign with some good logic behind it, Credit Suisse has announced that it is going overweight equities despite the cautiousness of all the other big banks. Specifically, Credit Suisse’s wealth management division is going overweight stocks as it sees increased prospects of a US-China trade deal, diminishing political risk in the UK and Europe, and additional stimulus efforts by global central banks. Taken as a combined force, these are quite bullish considerations, says the bank. Credit Suisse had previously been neutral on equities, but the announcement came from the banks’ global Chief Investment Officer.
FINSUM: We are starting to agree with Credit Suisse on the bullishness. The whole market and economy seem to be re-entering the post-Crisis goldilocks phase where the economy was just weak enough for central banks to stimulate (boosting asset prices, but not weak enough to cause any real problems.