Displaying items by tag: UBS

(New York)

UBS just went on the record warning of a potential bursting bubble in equity markets. The bank’s CEO says that global coordinated central bank easing posed a threat to markets and risked inflating a bubble. “I’d be very, very careful about growing further the balance sheet of central banks”, said CEO Sergio Ermotti. He further explained that current market prices were out of sync with investor sentiment, posing a risk. However, he did say that clients were ready to buy the dips in the market, which was an encouraging sign.

FINSUM: The equity markets remind us a bit of US politics at the moment. There are a lot of people in the middle without a lot of conviction, but those on the sharper ends are driving the whole thing forward.

(Washington)

Most investors spend their time worrying the Fed is going to cut the party short. Historically speaking, that has often been the role of the central bank—keeping things from getting too out of hand. However, Fed chief Powell does not appear to want to be the sober chaperone at the party this year, as the dovish positioning is heavy. Accordingly, there seems to be a strong chance of a melt up in stocks right now, or a big late stage rally. UBS, however, says the opposite, arguing that investors will stay hesitant because of high valuations and weak earnings.

FINSUM: We don’t think there will be a melt up. We just think the market will re-enter the post-Crisis goldilocks mode they were in, where rates are low and the economy is healthy, clearing the way for multiple expansion.

(New York)

The market is overly reliant on a rate cut, say UBS and Goldman Sachs. Both banks think investors are banking too strongly on the Fed cutting rates. The market is currently forecasting three 25 bp rate cuts by the end of the year. Treasury markets have surged, but too far says Goldman. UBS believes “Markets now imply that the Fed will cut rates by around 70 basis points this year and 35 bps next year. We find this excessive … We believe it would take a recession to provoke the magnitude of rate cuts currently being priced by the market, and this remains unlikely in our view”.

FINSUM: We do not believe the Fed will cut rates this sharply unless there is a recession, but maybe that is exactly what markets are expecting (just look at the yield curve).

(New York)

One of the big problems in our growing era of algorithmic trading is herd behavior. For instance, when many trading algorithms are all geared to trade on the basis of momentum, then you tend to get a ton of it at the same time. Well, the problem might be set to get worse as UBS is debuting a new product to help active managers with trade selection using AI. UBS is launching an AI-based product which recommends trade ideas to active managers, something being referred to as the Netflix of asset management. In other words, UBS’ AI recommends a trading strategy which it thinks will suit the manager.

FINSUM: So now even active managers are trying to be enticed into using AI-recommended strategies. The problem with this is that many managers will end being recommended the same strategies, leading to more trading in the same direction.

(New York)

UBS has just launched its own robo advisor, which means that every wirehouse now has their own robo service. UBS’ new service caters to client with under $250,000 in their portfolio. The robo provides “risk assessment, online enrollment, regular monitoring for rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting functionality, and ongoing professional portfolio management aligned with UBS GWM CIO capital markets assumptions”. UBS joins Merrill Lynch’s robo launch a year ago, as well as Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley’s platforms.

FINSUM: After all the fear and anxiety, robo advisors seem to have found a comfortable niche alongside human advice.