Most investors spend their time worrying the Fed is going to cut the party short. Historically speaking, that has often been the role of the central bank—keeping things from getting too out of hand. However, Fed chief Powell does not appear to want to be the sober chaperone at the party this year, as the dovish positioning is heavy. Accordingly, there seems to be a strong chance of a melt up in stocks right now, or a big late stage rally. UBS, however, says the opposite, arguing that investors will stay hesitant because of high valuations and weak earnings.
FINSUM: We don’t think there will be a melt up. We just think the market will re-enter the post-Crisis goldilocks mode they were in, where rates are low and the economy is healthy, clearing the way for multiple expansion.