Displaying items by tag: UBS
Earnings are beginning to roll in for Q2 for many US companies. The expectations…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.
ESG has been getting more and more mainstream, and yesterday it likely took the final hurdle to major acceptance...View the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
Right now there is a big problem in earnings forecasts. UBS points out that many Wall Street analysts have been very slow to update their earnings estimates in the growing coronavirus lockdown. As such, the current spread between estimates and what actual earnings are likely to be is very wide. This often happens in crises, as analysts await more info and data before updating estimates, but it also generally means there is a much greater chance for volatility as earnings releases approach.
FINSUM: We expect that as Q1 earnings reporting approaches in the next few weeks, there will be some big attention-grabbing downward revisions, which could bring on additional bouts of downside-oriented volatility.
The world’s leader in managing the ultra-wealthy’s money says that the rich are bracing themselves for a big selloff in 2020. The firm’s clients hold near record level of capital in cash—25%—and think the stock market is going to have real trouble next year. The two major concerns occupying the minds of the ultra wealthy are the US-China trade war and the 2020 US presidential election. The bank got quantitative results on the topic from a recent survey, which received 3,400 responses.
FINSUM: Nobody knows how the market will do next year, and it is never hard to find people that are bearish. This looks like the perfect wall of worry for stocks to climb.
UBS just went on the record warning of a potential bursting bubble in equity markets. The bank’s CEO says that global coordinated central bank easing posed a threat to markets and risked inflating a bubble. “I’d be very, very careful about growing further the balance sheet of central banks”, said CEO Sergio Ermotti. He further explained that current market prices were out of sync with investor sentiment, posing a risk. However, he did say that clients were ready to buy the dips in the market, which was an encouraging sign.
FINSUM: The equity markets remind us a bit of US politics at the moment. There are a lot of people in the middle without a lot of conviction, but those on the sharper ends are driving the whole thing forward.