Displaying items by tag: inflation

(New York)

The Dow experienced mild gains yesterday, with just a 40-point move higher. After so much back and forth recently, nothing could have been more welcome for many investors. The mild move begs Barron’s to ask the question of whether stocks have finally found a floor after a roller coaster two weeks. Stocks started rough, but rallied late in the day, giving signs of renewed optimism. The most interesting part was that after opening down 180 points, bids started to appear which supported the market, leading some to believe that there is actually a market clearing price in place.

FINSUM: Whatever the market did until now is immaterial in our opinion, as it is this morning that inflation data comes out, and that will ultimately be what moves markets in one direction or another.

(New York)

Well it finally happened yesterday. The big selloff in bonds finally managed to legitimately spook the equity market. Stocks in the US were down big as the yield on ten-years jumped mightily. The ten-year yield is now 2.73%, the highest in three years, which was a significant mental threshold. Investors are worried that with the world economy doing so well, inflation may again rear its head, causing central banks to raise rates quickly. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% on Monday.

FINSUM: Okay here is the big question we have—why would the world economy doing well and higher rates be negative for stocks? If anything, equities are a good inflation hedge.

(New York)

Okay so here is the trick: the Dollar should be getting stronger, but it isn’t. In fact, it is getting weaker quickly, and is at its lowest point in three years. The economy is getting stronger and rates look likely to rise, but the Dollar is weakening. What does this mean for stocks and the economy? The answer is that, in general, a weaker Dollar is good for earnings, as American companies, especially the largest ones, tend to get a lot of revenue from overseas. However, some think the Dollar is falling because of higher inflation expectations, which could mean that it is a sign of weaker financial markets to come.

FINSUM: One would think that slow to moderate inflation with a high likelihood of rising rates and a strengthening economy would be ideal for Dollar appreciation. But the opposite is happening.

(New York)

There has been A LOT of talk lately about a bond bear market. The idea is that rates are now in a secular rising cycle led by a hawkish Fed and rising inflation. The issue with that view is two-fold. Firstly, the bond market “experts” calling for the bear market are well-served if it comes true because of the strategies they use. And secondly, there isn’t really evidence of much inflation and the Fed is not looking overly hawkish. The one really worrying thing is that the economy has been performing well, which does lend itself to rising rates and more money flowing into risk assets.

FINSUM: We think all these worries are premature. We have a new Fed chief coming in which now one is sure about, and there just isn’t much inflation. Plus, there are tens of millions of people retiring who will need income investments.

(New York)

The media and many bond market gurus would have you think the ceiling is caving in on bonds. Talk of a massive bear market, surging inflation, and big losses abound. How to make sense of it all? The answer, if there is one, is that reversals in rate environments tend to take a long time, and have historically lasted 2-3 decades before reversing back. Therefore, bond yields may continue to climb steadily, but this shouldn’t be bad for the stock market, so big losses may be avoided. In fact, slowly rising rates can spark structural bull markets. It would also be helpful for pension funds to have higher yields as they could be safe in assuming better returns, helping fund the huge national pension deficit.

FINSUM: We just are not that worried about bonds. The Fed still seems fairly timid, there is high natural demand for yields because of demographics, and inflation and growth aren’t all that strong.