(Washington)

Investors in tech have reason to worry. Not only is Trump saying that they should possibly be subjected to anti-trust regulation, but the tech sector is heading to Washington today to meet with the Senate. Top executives at Facebook, Google, and Twitter, are set to face questions and scrutiny about their practices, including on trust concerns, political content, and consumer privacy. The tide of public opinion has turned against tech over the last year, and congress has followed suit, with Senate GOP leader Orrin Hatch calling Google’s anti-trust behavior “disquieting” despite the fact that he used to staunchly defend the sector.

FINSUM: The big problem for tech is that a regulatory crackdown now seems to have bipartisan support. We think there will be some regulations imposed on tech, but the depth of the forthcoming rules will be the deciding factor. In other words, will it be something along the lines of GDPR (relatively light) or more like Glass-Steagal?

(Washington)

By far the biggest focus of the recent tax package has been its limiting of SALT deductions to just $10,000. The current implementation of the rule was considered phase one by Republicans, with phase two—making the changes permanent—supposed to happen this fall. However, given how tight the congressional races are, including in high tax states like New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Illinois, many Republicans are now considering delaying the vote so that sitting representatives don’t have to take a stand on the package.

FINSUM: The SALT limits are wildly unpopular in many locations, and the Republicans are rightfully worried that pushing for making them permanent could cost them some seats. Will this eventually lead to the repeal of the rule?

(New York)

There has been a lot of focus, including both worry and skepticism, surrounding the potential inversion of the yield curve. The two and ten-year Treasury are now just 20 bp apart. Because yield curve inversions have been a very reliable indicator of recession, many are worried. However, some are skeptical that the current near-inversion means much because of how distorted long-term bond prices have become because of quantitative easing. The reality though, according to the FT, is that it doesn’t matter if long-term yields are artificially low. Because the market believes in the predictive power of inversions, companies, consumers, and investors will act as though we are headed into a recession, and thus create one in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

FINSUM: This is an interesting argument that relies strongly on the concept of herd mentality amongst investors. We tend to agree that an inversion may cause an adverse reaction in the economy and markets.

(New York)

We are in an era of rising rates. That means that income-based stocks generally suffer as their yields look less and less and attractive. So how does one maintain an allocation to high-yielding stocks while preserving capital—buy stocks with good dividend growth. With that in mind, here is a list of seven good dividend growers. The list favors “established dividend paying stocks with strong fundamentals and stocks potentially trading at or below fair value. Dividend safety is another important factor”. The stocks are Home Depot, Boeing, Union Pacific, Amgen, J.M. Smucker, Honeywell International, and Pepsico.

FINSUM: This is a nice mix of sectors and well-known names that seem to have some real value in them. Definitely worth a deeper dive.

(New York)

Pimco, long-time leader in fixed income, has just gone on the record saying there may be some good opportunities in emerging markets. The company’s CIO sees the major turmoil in EMs, but says they offer opportunity. With all the selloffs, Pimco says “There are clearly a lot of challenges in emerging markets. But we see a little bit of value. It’s beginning to look interesting … We don’t see the same complacency in emerging markets as we do in other markets … We are more buyers than sellers”. For instance, Pimco is a major holder of Argentinian debt, and favors the country over Turkey.

FINSUM: With all the currency weakness and selloffs, there are certainly some good opportunities. However, this is an area where we may favor active management, as it takes a lot of work and insight to understand the internal dynamics of EM opportunities.