Displaying items by tag: Trump

(New York)

There has been a major change in the stock market’s attitude toward the president over the last several weeks. For a long time, the market was very concerned with Trump winning. If Trump looked weak in polls, it was bad for markets. According to RBC, for the last 12 months, the S&P 500 has moved mostly in line with Trump’s odds for reelection. According to the bank, ““For the past year, expectations as to whether Trump will win again in November (as tracked by the betting markets) have been moving in sync with S&P 500 performance … But that relationship has broken down a bit in early June, with Trump’s chances (according to the betting markets) falling and the S&P 500 surging”.

FINSUM: Markets care much more about the economy than they do Trump, and everyone seems to be betting that COVID stimulus will keep going even if Trump loses.

(Washington)

It has been long in the works. So long, in fact, that many seem to have forgotten about it. Yet here it is—a new fiduciary rule from the DOL, almost three years after the last one was vacated. The new version of the rule has just been delivered to the White House for review by the Office of Management and Budget. This starts a multi-month process that may lead to its implementation, but given how late the rule is arriving it may not get enacted before Trump could potentially leave office. If Trump wins the election, the timing is irrelevant, but if he loses and the rule has been in place less than 60 days when the new president takes over, it can very easily be reversed.

FINSUM: We have not yet seen a good summary of the contents of this rule, but will be covering it as soon as possible. The only thing we have heard is that the new rule is “is primarily a prohibited transaction exemption intended to replace the Best Interest Contract Exemption”.

(San Francisco)

Twitter took a very big step in its ongoing confrontation with President Trump this week. Over the last couple of years, the social media site has taken some steps to block Trump tweets that were barred under its policies. However, yesterday it took what feels like a monumental step—it started putting warning signs and links on posts that it said contained misleading information. Trump has exploded in his response, saying he could shut down social media companies.

FINSUM: We are of two minds about this. On the one hand Twitter was founded as an alternative source of news and a way for people to express their opinions outside the filter that mainstream news provides. On the other hand, it does not seem right that various social media platforms are being used as unchecked fake-news propaganda machines by both parties.

(Washington)

New polls emerging show an interesting picture of how the November election may go. While Biden remains about 5 points ahead of Trump in national polls, what is more interesting is that he holds a 5-point lead in three of the most integral swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That is critical because those are the states that trump won in 2016 in order to beat Hillary. If he doesn’t win those states this time around, the odds are very long for a Trump victory.

FINSUM: The state of the economy and the long lockdown seem to be weighing on Trump right now, but there is still six months to go, which is more than enough time for a big swing (in either direction).

(Washington)

While many readers often accuse us of having one political persuasion or another (we get accused by both sides all the time!), we try to be pretty neutral about politics here at FINSUM. On this particular topic, we want to weigh in very clearly (even though we don’t, have a clear position). Earlier this week, the President said what was easily the most heartfelt, eloquent and “presidential” comment of his presidency, and given this topic, we think it is worth sharing. He said “I have it make the biggest decision of my life, and I only hope to god I get it right”. Well, his view was made more clear today, which is that he is favoring a quick reopening.

FINSUM: In our view, nobody knows the right answer to the question about balancing the risk to life versus the imperative of providing economic security. In many ways it is a catch-22. We think a really well-considered strategy is needed.