Displaying items by tag: bonds

The rise of private credit has reshaped the landscape of speculative-grade debt, absorbing many of the riskiest borrowers that once relied on public high-yield bonds. With banks retreating from direct lending due to regulatory constraints, private credit firms have stepped in, fueling a market now worth $2.5 trillion globally. 

This shift has left the high-yield bond market with a stronger credit profile, narrowing yield spreads and reducing volatility. However, private credit’s lack of transparency means that credit risk hasn’t disappeared—it has simply moved to a space where prices and risks are less visible. 

While public high-yield bonds have become scarcer and more expensive, some riskier borrowers are returning to public markets through structured investment vehicles. Ultimately, as economic conditions shift, both public and private debt markets may face renewed pressures, exposing hidden risks within private credit’s rapid expansion.

FINSUM: Though private credit obscures some risks, economic stress could still expose vulnerabilities across both public and private debt markets.

The transition away from zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) wasn’t painless, requiring sharp rate hikes and a challenging bear market before monetary conditions began resembling pre-2008 norms. Now, with higher government bond yields, investors have a genuine risk-free income opportunity, prompting a rethinking of portfolio strategies. 

Angelo Kourkafas of Edward Jones suggests that as cash yields dip below bond returns in 2025, bonds are poised to outperform, restoring their historical role in balanced portfolios. 

While trade policy uncertainty could complicate this outlook, he expects Canadian bond yields to stay rangebound, with income rather than price appreciation driving returns. He sees this fixed-income strength complementing a more measured equity rally, with a diversified stock-bond mix offering steadier returns in the year ahead.

Finsum: Oversized cash positions, could become a portfolio drag, especially for conservative investors who could lock in reliable income with bonds.

Actively managed U.S. bond funds saw a resurgence in 2024, drawing in substantial investment after two years of outflows, with industry leaders like Pacific Investment Management Co. leading the charge. Morningstar Direct data revealed that six of the ten bond mutual funds with the highest net inflows were actively managed, pulling in a combined $74 billion.

In total, actively managed bond funds attracted $261 billion over the year, the highest level since 2021, despite a bond market selloff triggered by the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in four years. Core and income-focused bond strategies were the biggest winners, appealing to investors seeking stability in an uncertain interest-rate landscape. 

With Treasury yields hovering near 5% and credit spreads historically tight, investors are weighing the risks and rewards of bonds versus other asset classes. While the Pimco Income Fund remained the largest actively managed bond fund with $26.8 billion in inflows, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund led all funds with $33.4 billion. 

Finsum: Uncertainty around fiscal policy and potential inflationary pressures under the new administration could shape how bond markets evolve in 2025.

Municipal bonds, often overlooked, are gaining attention as fixed income performs strongly, prompting investors to reconsider their portfolios for 2025. Gregory Steier from Brown Brothers Harriman, highlighted that with elevated yields and record municipal issuance, risks are relatively low, making this an exciting time for munis. 

Steier emphasized that, for 2025, high-quality municipal portfolios might even outperform equities. Munis are attractive for their liquidity, income, diversification, and tax efficiency, with national muni bonds offering advantages over state-specific ones. 

Investors can access municipal exposure through ETFs like the ALPS Intermediate Municipal Bond ETF (MNBD), which focuses on bonds exempt from federal taxes, offering an active approach and strong returns, outperforming its benchmark. 

Finsum: This strategy could be a compelling option for those seeking solid yields to kick off the new year.

Actively managed fixed income ETFs have gained remarkable traction, with over $100 billion in inflows in 2024 and growing demand expected for 2025. These ETFs, favored for their flexibility and expertise, have helped the ETF industry surpass $300 billion in fixed income assets this year. 

During VettaFi’s Market Outlook Symposium, 51% of advisors expressed plans to increase their exposure to actively managed funds next year, compared to only 20% for index-based options. 

Core, core-plus, and multi-sector active ETFs, such as Fidelity’s Total Bond ETF (FBND) and iShares’ Flexible Income Active ETF (BINC), have outperformed comparable passive funds. Active ETFs like JPMorgan’s Core Plus Bond ETF (JCPB) balance investment-grade bonds with speculative assets to enhance returns.

Finsum:  With strong performances and growing advisor interest, active fixed income ETFs are poised to remain a dominant force in fixed income investing.