Displaying items by tag: Treasuries

(Beijing)

One of the big downside risks for the US in its current trade war with China concerns the fact that Beijing owns $1.18 tn of US Treasuries. They also own billions of US mortgage bonds. The big question is whether they will decide to use such ownership as a weapon against the US. For instance, if they sold off large quantities of the bonds, it could send US yields spiking. However, it seems unlikely they would do say for a number of reasons. Firstly, it would hurt the value of their own holdings and all their other Dollar-denominated assets, and it would engender a lot more punitive action from the US. Some consider it the economic equivalent of “mutually assured destruction”.

FINSUM: This is a grave risk for the US because of how it would push up rates all through the economy, but we do not think the trade war has gotten this serious yet.

(New York)

Ten-year Treasuries are currently sitting at 2.85%, and according to Barron’s, they aren’t going anywhere. The reason why seems to be three part: a weak inflation outlook, trade war, and the combination of so-so growth and a hawkish Fed. All of this makes investors comfortable with sub-3% yields, and the bonds are being supported by their safe haven nature. Another problem is that US yields are much higher than in other developed countries, such as in Europe, keeping demand for Treasuries high.

FINSUM: We see longer end yields as pretty pinned at the moment. There is not much to be bullish about in the long term economic outlook, so it is hard to see why Treasuries would slide.

(New York)

Many investors are worried about rising yields, which could wreak havoc on everything from the economy, to income stocks, to all manner of bonds. Well, for what it is worth, Morgan Stanley has just put out a piece arguing that the 3.12% yield seen on the ten-year Treasury recently is it, the peak. Morgan Stanley says that yields will stop rising and they are advising clients to go long Treasury bonds at current yields. The argument stands in contrast to Pimco and JP Morgan, who both see yields moving towards 4%. The one caveat to the call is if trade tensions get settled quickly, as turmoil on that front is one of the bullish drivers they see for Treasuries.

FINSUM: If trade tensions keep flaring we agree that Treasury yields are likely to stay flat or fall as investors flee to safety.

(New York)

One of the big worries about the stock market right now is that the rise in bond yields could threaten appetites for equities. Well, the ultimate test of that theory has arrived. As of this week, the yield on the One Month Treasury note, yes the one month, is now just about equal to the S&P 500’s average yield. The One Month is yielding 1.84% versus 1.89% for the S&P 500. The notes have very little credit risk or interest rate risk. ETFs that invest in short-term debt have seen $17 bn of inflows this year.

FINSUM: So fund flows are starting to show why we are worried about stocks. Equity dividend funds have been seeing outflows, while fixed income funds have been seeing inflows.

(New York)

Rates are rising, and that usually means bad news for income stocks. This time looks no different. Both utilities and real estate have been wounded this year, with both down between 3% and 6% for the year. The sectors are also getting increasingly unfavorable ratings from analysts.

FINSUM: We are pretty worried about losses coming for good income stocks as short-term Treasuries are yielding so much. Additionally, the Fed is sounding more hawkish, which only adds momentum to losses for rate sensitive equities.