President Biden announced he is going to nominate Michael Barr, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury and current dean of the University of Michigan's Public Policy School, for the Feds Vice Chairman of Supervision. Previously nominated Sarah Bloom Raskin pulled her nomination with harsh criticism from Republicans because she argued the Fed should discourage lending to traditional energy companies. Barr will be stepping into a difficult role but has experience in Government. He helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Critics have said that Barr had been easy on bank regulations during the Obama admin and others were suspicious as to his role with Lending Club and Ripple Labs.

Finsum: This is a relatively new position but it has critical regulatory power for the financial system.

Oil prices have begun to stagnate just a hair, but they are still high enough to spur lots of production. U.S. oil output is expected to be 12.86 million barrels a day according to East Daley Capital, which is a 23% increase from their December forecast. Most of the increased production will come from shale Fields in the Permian Basin, as elevated prices can sustain drilling and production here. Additionally, supply chains are relatively more lubricated, the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks ongoing, and a massive Covid resurgence seems like a small probability. The Dallas said profits are more than sustainable to continue drilling in the Permian Basin and other shale sites.

Finsum: This increased production could be enough to finally cap the upward moving gas prices, but that effect could take some time.

Oil prices have begun to stagnate just a hair, but they are still high enough to spur lots of production. U.S. oil output is expected to be 12.86 million barrels a day according to East Daley Capital, which is a 23% increase from their December forecast. Most of the increased production will come from shale Fields in the Permian Basin, as elevated prices can sustain drilling and production here. Additionally, supply chains are relatively more lubricated, the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks ongoing, and a massive Covid resurgence seems like a small probability. The Dallas said profits are more than sustainable to continue drilling in the Permian Basin and other shale sites.

Finsum: This increased production could be enough to finally cap the upward moving gas prices, but that effect could take some time.

Goldman told their investors that their best-case scenario for stocks had the S&P closing 2022 at 4,700, which might mean a 4% increase through the end of the year, but it would still finish below 2021’s close of 4,766. However, their worst-case scenario is very dower and predicts equities tumbling 21%. This scenario has the U.S. falling into a recession. Recession probability is higher than normal right now too as the US saw a 2-and 10-year yield curve investigation which has been the strongest indicator of a recession since the Great Depression.

Finsum: We wouldn’t pick a fight with the yield curve however, there is substantially more inflation pressure in this yield curve than in the previous ones reducing the probability of a recession.

Acquisitions and launches are running hot in direct indexing and in an attempt to match rival Fidelity, Charles Schwab announced the launch of their new direct indexing products. The funds will be available starting on April 30th, but unlike Fidelity’s ultra-low initial investment of $5k, Schwab will require a $100,000 minimum. They want their direct index investors to have a better conceptualization of the market and think the minimum will attract this. The launch comes fresh off of tax season and will hopefully drive interest as tax is an advantage of DI. Schwab will concentrate on the tax advantages of their custom offerings as opposed to ESG or other flavors popular with these funds.

Finsum: The timing of this launch could put investors over the hump when it comes to taking advantage of tax-loss harvesting with their DI products.