Displaying items by tag: fed

Amid ongoing concerns over inflation, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain its key interest rate at its highest level in over a decade, ranging between 5.25% and 5.5%. Despite solid economic expansion and strong job gains, the central bank noted a persistent lack of progress toward its 2% inflation target. Annual inflation rates remained elevated, with the consumer price index registering at 3.5%, driven primarily by surging housing and insurance costs.

Although there is optimism about reaching the 2% inflation goal, economists caution that significant progress is still needed. The Fed's strategy of keeping interest rates elevated to curb inflation has yielded mixed results, with inflation rates plateauing between 3% and 4% after initial declines. Complex factors, including rising costs passed on by insurance companies and varying consumer spending behaviors, contribute to the inflationary pressures beyond the Fed's control.

While concerns about the labor market and future business conditions persist, analysts believe the likelihood of a recession remains low. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the ongoing uncertainty, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments in the near term.

Finsum: Expect rates to hold steadier than markets might expect with this stubborn of inflation. 

Bitcoin faced a nearly 6% downturn on Wednesday, marking its weakest monthly performance since late 2022, as investors divested from cryptocurrencies prior to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The primary cryptocurrency globally witnessed a drop of nearly 16% in April, as investors cashed out gains from a scorching rally that propelled prices above $70,000.

Bitcoin saw a decline of up to 5.6%, hitting its lowest point since late February, hovering at $57,001, while ether saw more modest losses, down 3.6% at $2,857, also reaching its lowest level since February.  Despite being down 22% from March's peak, bitcoin remains up 35% this year and has doubled in value since this time last year, largely due to significant capital inflows into newly established exchange-traded funds since January. 

Crypto-related stocks, including Coinbase, Riot, and Marathon Digital, dipped in U.S. premarket trading, reflecting broader market uncertainties surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee's stance on interest rates.

Finsum: The original link between bitcoin and inflation/interest rates has deteriorated, but regulation will clear up the future for cryptocurrency. 

Stringer Asset Management shared some thoughts on fixed income, monetary policy, and the economy. The firm notes that while inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s desired levels, it will move closer to the Fed’s target over time. One factor is that the M2 money supply is starting to decline, which is a leading indicator of inflation. Another is that fiscal stimulus effects are finally waning.

Thus, Stringer still sees rate cuts later this year, although it’s difficult to predict the timing and number of cuts, creating a challenging environment for bond investors. During this period of uncertainty, it favors active strategies to help reduce risk and capitalize on inefficiencies. Active managers are also better equipped to navigate a more dynamic environment full of risks, such as the upcoming election and a tenuous geopolitical situation.

Stringer recommends that investors diversify their holdings across the yield curve and credit risk factors. It favors a balance of riskier credit with Treasuries. This is because the firm expects the bond market to remain static until the Fed actually cuts. It’s also relatively optimistic for the economy given that household balance sheets are in good shape, corporate earnings remain strong, and the unemployment rate remains low. These conditions are conducive to a favorable environment for high-yield debt. 

Finsum: Stringer Asset Management believes that fixed income investors should pursue an active approach given various uncertainties around the economy, inflation, and monetary policy in addition to geopolitical risks.

Bonds have weakened to start the year, given increasing uncertainty about the direction of the economy and monetary policy. Weitz Investment Management notes that credit spreads have tightened even while long-term yields move higher. Thus, the firm believes there is greater potential for losses if inflation meaningfully picks up from current levels or credit spreads widen.

It also believes that massive fiscal deficits are an indication that the inflation issue is not going to disappear anytime soon. It notes that over the last 4 years, deficits have averaged 9% of GDP, which was only seen before during wars. Currently, the national debt is increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days. And this is a major reason why the Fed’s aggressive hikes have not resulted in a recession. It also means that Treasury issuance will continue to be elevated as debt will need to be refinanced at higher rates. 

Amid this backdrop, the firm notes that there is considerable complacency among investors. It notes that credit spreads declined across the board in Q1 and are now at 10-year lows. It believes this is likely a result of strong demand for bonds as new issues have been oversubscribed and there has been a flattening of yields in the credit curve. 

To combat these risks, Weitz recommends looking for opportunities in fixed income across the spectrum and beyond the benchmarks. It recommends diversified and broad exposure, including fixed and floating-rate securities. Ultimately, investors need to be nimble and prepare for various scenarios, such as the economy continuing to be robust, inflation resuming its ascent, or the economy stumbling into a recession.

Finsum: Weitz Investment Management sees considerable complacency within fixed income while also noting some risks. It recommends investors seek broad and diversified exposure to the asset class and pursue a more active and nimble approach. 

In Q1, inflows into active fixed income ETFs exceeded inflows into passive ETFs at $90 billion vs. $69 billion. This is a remarkable change from last year, when active fixed income ETFs had net inflows of $19 billion vs. $279 billion for passive bond ETFs.  

Two major factors behind this development are an increase in uncertainty about the economy and monetary policy and yields above 5% for some of the most popular offerings. According to Ryan Murphy, the head of fixed income business development at Capital Group, this is the beginning of “a longer multi-quarter and potentially multi-year trend out of cash. Investors are getting the best compensation on fixed income in 20 years.” 

Flows could accelerate into bond funds as there is $6 trillion in money market funds once the Fed actually starts cutting rates. Yet, the current ‘wait and see’ period is challenging for fixed-income investors, but it’s an opportune moment for active strategies given opportunities to find distortions in prices and credit quality. Stephen Bartolini, portfolio manager at T. Rowe, notes, “The ability to not just blindly buy the index but be smarter and choose around security selection is critical at the moment.” 

Finsum: Active fixed income inflows were greater than inflows into passive fixed income ETFs. It’s a result of attractive yields and heightened uncertainty about the economy and monetary policy.