(Madrid)

While all eyes are on Italy and its political/markets crisis, the answer to the really scary question—will the Eurozone and EU fall apart—might lay in Spain. Italy is going to go down the road it chooses, but the big consternation is really about whether others will follow. To see the extent of the crisis, one needs to follow Spain, which will be holding a no confidence vote for its PM on Friday, with socialists likely to take over in his party’s absence.

FINSUM: If Italy falls, the next domino seems likely to be Spain. If the pair indicate they are leaving the Euro we will probably have a financial crisis unfold.

(San Francisco)

Remember all those privacy policy email updates you got over the last few weeks? Well in case you were not paying attention, they arrived because of a landmark change in the way the EU is governing data, and even US companies needed to comply if they had any European customers. Well, under the new rules, Google is already seen as the big winner, which we thought investors might like to know. Google has been able to get data use consent from users much more successfully than others, and in turn, it has been routing many of its ad customers to its own ad exchanges instead of those of vendors.

FINSUM: As was always going to be the case, it looks like the big tech powers will be able to use the new data regulations to their advantage. Theoretically this could be a boost to Google’s cash cow Adsense business.

(New York)

In what could be a big gain for banks, US regulators are poised to roll back parts of the dreaded Volcker rule, or the Dodd-Frank regulation that virtually ended proprietary trading on Wall Street. One of the big points of loosening is that it will no longer be assumed that if a position is held for less than 60 days that it is a violation of the rule. Banks will also be able to demonstrate that they are market-making rather than proprietary trading much more simply.

FINSUM: Banks have long complained that the Volcker Rule meant they could not provide as much fixed income liquidity to markets as they once did. That should change now, theoretically.

(New York)

If you are not worried about markets and the global economy at the moment you should be. At least according to legend George Soros. The hedge fund manager thinks that the world is headed for “another major financial crisis”, this time spear-headed by politics. Soros believes the epicenter of the crisis will be the EU. “The EU is in an existential crisis. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong”, said Soros, continuing that “it needs to reinvent itself”. Soros believes the problems in Europe have three facets: “the refugee crisis, territorial disintegration exemplified by Brexit and an austerity policy, prompted by the financial crisis”.

FINSUM: We sort of feel like we are in a time warp that loops back to the summers of 2011 and 2012. We do not believe the whole EU project, and the Euro will fall apart now.

(New York)

US investors got a rude shock yesterday: the Dow fell a whopping 391 points. The reason? An election in Italy that occurred several weeks ago led to the president there announcing someone else as prime minister, leading to a political crisis that could see alternative parties come to power. The big question now is whether this is the kind of situation that will blow over in a few days, or whether it is the kind of protracted issue that can ruin a whole summer, such as in 2011 and 2012.

FINSUM: We are worried this could take longer to play out than US investors would like. The big worry here is that Italy might default and then leave the Euro, which could lead to an unwinding of the whole currency. The size of those implications coupled with the complexity of the situation in Italy means this could take some time to play out.