Displaying items by tag: hedging

Stagflation has been out of the public lexicon since the Greenspan era, but as inflation begins to gradually creep up again that word is beginning to seem like a higher probability. Inflation has climbed to 8.5% and growth is expected to slow dramatically for 2021Q1 to 1.7%. Small-cap is a great option during these times because they are a great alternative partially in Finance. Preferred Bank is a great option with earnings estimates rising and is moving into a bullish category on Wallstreet. Others to watch out for are Mercantile Bank Corp and Old Second Bancorp as they are also well-positioned small-cap financials to stave off stagflation.

Finsum: It's amazing that equities are the most stabilizing force on Wallstreet right now, but small-cap might just be the play as volatility rises.

Bonds and equities have stood tall in the face of the many windfalls that have faced financial markets in the last month. However, even the bulls are getting worried and alternatives could provide relief and earn higher yield. Real estate via REITs are in a great position as an asset class and could perform well in the upcoming years with higher interest rates. Art is an overlooked alternative which has had high appreciation, outpacing 10 major classes since Covid according to CITI. Finally private equity has been a go to for many investors, and has seen record inflows post-covid while remaining less correlated with equities.

Finsum: The biggest draw to private equity is that fixed income is more correlated than ever with stocks and so alternatives provide a better hedge.

Direct indexing is one of the fastest growing market segments and investors surveys confirm that customization is king of the modern landscape. Curulli Associates forecasts that direct indexing will grow faster than ETFs and mutual funds. Custom indexing has a legg up on traditional ETFs when it comes to volatility because investors can harvest losses as the market takes dips. With traditional ETFs investors have to just eat the losses as they slow the long run growth of the fund, but micro dips can be maximized by taking advantage for tax purposes, say industry quants.

Finsum: It's clear that direct indexing has advantages over traditional ETFs, but even when compared with their fees the tax savings is worth it for direct indexing strategies.

Many investors have moved off of REITs and they are trading well below their 200-day moving averages. This makes them a value proposition, particularly as volatility starts to rise. Uncertainty particularly around Ukraine and Russia is fueling volatility but its uncorrelated with REIT volatility which gives it a huge risk advantage on top of it all they are more robust to inflation. Two great REITs to consider with great value at the moment are Alexandria Real Estate Equities and Crown Castle International. These REITs have healthcare and telecom exposures respectively which are in a particularly attractive position as healthcare spending is a higher portion of budgets and 5G is exploding.

Finsum: It’s easy to see that alternatives should be seeing inflows given the volatility in traditional equity and bond markets.

There is nothing like an international conflict to generate a flight to safe assets, and as much pressure as treasury bond prices have taken in the last year, they are still the world’s premiere safe asset. Inflows post Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have lowered Treasury yields and raised bond prices. Additionally it appears that markets are either dubious of the Fed’s rate hikes or just don’t think it will take as many to get the jobs done. Regardless, many bond ETFs, particularly around treasuries have benefited such as the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF which were up 2.0% and 2.6% respectively in the last week.

Finsum: Treasuries are still the global safe asset and they are still in short supply given the abnormally low levels of U.S. interest rates.