(New York)

Merrill Lynch’s new compensation plan is not being received well by brokers. Many are angry about certain aspects of the plan and are pushing back. In particular, brokers don’t like that the plan incentivizes them to tell clients to take on more debt during a period when interest rates are rising. Around 15,000 advisors have complained to Merrill Lynch management. Management responded by saying it was a good incentive and was designed so that it didn’t heighten conflicts of interest.

FINSUM: This seems like it will just create misaligned incentives, especially given that it is being put in place when it is very unfavorable to be adding debt.

(New York)

One of the surest signs in the economy right now is that real estate is in trouble. Data coming out of the sector has been consistently weak for months and shows a clear downtrend in the housing market. Rates seem to be playing a big part of that, as demand for housing has sunk as rates have risen. That could prove one of the few brakes on the Fed’s relentless rate hike path. The fall in real estate comes at a time when the market should be surging, as unemployment is at extreme lows and Millennials are entering their peak home buying years.

FINSUM: Besides stocks and bonds freaking out, real estate is one of the areas showing a lot of weakness, and this it is perhaps one of the few aspects that could stop the Fed.

(San Francisco)

As of today, the FAANG stocks have shed over $1 tn in market cap since their recent highs. The turmoil pulled markets down around 2% across indices, with the Dow seeing the biggest drop at 2.21%. The losses mean once again that indices have lost virtually all their gains for the year. As one CIO put it, “absolute bloodbath for technology stocks”. The selloff seems very forward looking, as investors are quite focused on what might go right and wrong in 2019. The biggest worries seem to be around trade.

FINSUM: Here is a question: why exactly is tech selling off? Apple obviously has its own problems, but those particular issues don’t seem very relevant to Facebook etc. Panic?

(New York)

How to protect against the next recession? This is a difficult question. Since it may be rate induced, it will be hard to hide out in Treasuries, and gold has not inspired much confidence. Well, SkyBridge Capital thinks the big money maker is to short high yields. “Our largest short position right now is in high yield, and it’s not because we think we’re going to make money this year or next year … It’s to protect against the eventual recession or [a] surprise recession”, says a portfolio manager there. “If you’re looking to put on [a] relative cheap short position, it’s hard to figure out how you lose money given how tight spreads are”.

FINSUM: High yield has seen a big expansion of credit and a decline in quality, and when the next recession rolls around there are going to be some big losses.

(New York)

There is a lot of focus on stocks, bonds, and oil right now, but a very important US asset class is sending increasingly bleak signals: real estate. Data out of the sector has been growing weaker for months, and now new figures reinforce the trend. US homebuilder confidence has fallen to its lowest level in two years. The National Association of Homebuilders commented that “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall. As a consequence, builders have adopted a more cautious approach to market conditions”.

FINSUM: The rea estate market is slowly but surely tightening up. However, because price gains were never as over-the-top as pre-Crisis we only expect shallow declines as the next recession unfolds.