Displaying items by tag: duration

In 2023, yields started where they ended, although there was considerable volatility in between. Notably, yields dropped sharply following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the spring amid concerns that it would spark a greater crisis. And, yields spiked in autumn with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 5% following an uptick in inflation.

In hindsight, this marked the bottom for fixed income as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index gained nearly 10% between the end of October and the new year. Looking ahead, Vanguard believes this strong performance will continue in 2024. 

In terms of its outlook, it sees inflation ending the year just above the Fed’s 2% target. It believes the Fed will ease policy, although they don’t see rates returning to the same lows as the previous cycle. It also sees the yield curve steepening as short-term rates fall further. 

The firm also acknowledges some risks to its outlook such as the economy continuing to be bumpy even within the context of a slowdown which could lead to false signals. Credit spreads have remained tight which means that there is greater risk in the event of a recession. High deficits mean that Treasury supply will be plentiful, adding upwards pressure to yields. Finally, inflation could re-ignite especially given geopolitical risks and prevent the Fed from easing even if the economy warranted it. 

Finsum: Many active fixed income funds are being launched with a specialized focus on a particular niche. These funds have outperformed amid the volatility in the fixed income market. 

AllianceBernstein believes that the rally in fixed income will continue due to central banks cutting rates. Thus, investors should take advantage of the opportunity to lock in yields at these levels. 

The firm sees the Fed as remaining on hold until the second-half of the year. It sees the current environment as opportune given that rates will decline over the intermediate-term, while yields remain historically attractive in the interim. 

Despite expectations of slowing economic growth in the second-half of the year, AllianceBernstein isn’t concerned of a major downturn in the credit cycle as earnings remain robust, while household finances remain in strong shape despite some stress in recent months. 

Overall, the firm recommends that investors consider getting fully invested into fixed income especially given that many investors are in cash or short-duration bonds. This strategy made sense over the last couple of years but no longer does given where we are in the cycle. 

Instead, investors need to increase duration given its base case expectation of slowing economic growth and materially lower rates over the next 12 to 18 months. It also recommends corporate credit and securitized debt given attractive yields and solid fundamentals.

Finsum: AllianceBernstein is bullish on fixed income in 2024 due to its expectations that the Fed will cut and the economy will slow. It recommends taking advantage of yields while they remain high and extending duration.  

In 2024, the major market narrative has certainly shifted from whether the Fed will cut or hike to when and how much the Fed will cut. According to Steve Laipply, BlackRock’s Global Co-Head of Bond ETFs, it’s a good time to lock in yields. Currently, investors can achieve yields of 4% in low-risk, diversified bond funds which is quite attractive relative to recent history. 

During the previous cycle, investors would have to buy riskier high-yield bonds to achieve such income. Overall, he believes that investors have been overly risk averse during this tightening cycle, and most are underexposed to the asset class. Despite the recent rally, there are plenty of opportunities to capture generous yields with lower levels of risk. Further, fixed income would benefit if the economy weakened further, and inflation continues to lose steam. 

While investors can get even higher yields in the front-end of the curve or with certificates of deposit, Laipply doesn’t see this as a prudent approach given underlying macroeconomic trends, and the Fed’s dovish tilt in the new year. He recommends that investors choose a diversified, broad bond fund like the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF or an active fund like the Blackrock Flexible Income Fund.

Finsum: According to Steve Laipply, Blackrock’s Global Co-head of Bond ETFs, investors should lock in yields given the rising chance of a recession, slowing inflation, and a dovish Fed in 2024.

Currently, fixed income investors can lock in yields that are in-line with the average, historical return in equity markets. According to David Leduc, the CEO, Insight Investment North America, this is a major reason we are in a new ‘golden age’ for bonds. 

Another reason to be bullish on the asset class is that most funds are deployed via passive strategies. This has increased liquidity and decreased transaction costs, while also leading to more inefficiencies which astute active managers can capitalize upon. 

Leduc believes that fixed income benchmarks are inherently flawed given that indexes are weighted based on debt issuance. The end result is that passive fixed income investors are overexposed to the most indebted companies.

In contrast, active managers can achieve alpha through careful selection in terms of value, credit quality, and duration. While passive funds invest in a relatively small slice of the fixed income universe, active managers have much more latitude in terms of securities to better optimize portfolios in terms of risk and return. One constraint for active managers is that some strategies are successful but can’t necessarily be scaled. Many err by simply sticking to duration positioning which increases near-term volatility.

Finsum: It’s a golden age for fixed income with bonds offering equity-like returns. Here’s why investors should favor active strategies especially as the risk of a recession grows.  

Entering 2023, the consensus was that fixed income would outperform. This turned out to be incorrect as the economy and inflation proved to be more resilient than expected. For the year, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index returned 5.5% which is in-line with the average return although the bulk of gains came in the final months of the year.  

As the calendar turns, the consensus is once again that the Fed is going to be embarking on rate cuts. Currently, the market expects 6 cuts before year-end which means there is room for downside in the event that the Fed doesn’t cut as aggressively. According to Bernstein, this may be premature as the firm sees many reasons for upward pressure on yields including inflation re-igniting, heavy amounts of Treasury debt issuance, and an acceleration of economic growth. 

Bernstein recommends that investors eschew more expensive parts of fixed income like high-grade corporate debt. Many are unprepared for a scenario where spreads tighten or rates fall less than expected. Instead, it favors segments that would benefit from stronger growth like preferred securities and AAA collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). The firm also likes TIPS and the 2Y Treasury as these offer attractive yields and inflation protection. 

Finsum: While most of Wall Street is bullish on fixed income in 2024, Bernstein is more cautious due to its expectations that rates will fall less than expected, while valuations are not as attractive.