Displaying items by tag: bonds

(New York)

For the last year all the fear in bond markets was about inflation and how the Fed would handle it. Were we going to be hiked into a recession? Now all of that has shifted and fixed income gurus are concerned over an entirely different beast—recession. In many ways the fears of recession have become so strong that they are intimidating the market as a whole, making the term “bond vigilante” more than appropriate here.

FINSUM: The speed with which the bond market has reversed since December is pretty alarming. We do wonder if this inversion might be a false signal.

(New York)

The professor who first identified yield curve inversions has written an article explaining what the development really means. First identified in 1986, a yield curve inversion is considered the most widely accurate indicator of recession. Since it was first identified and back tested, it has accurately predicted a further 3 out of 3 recessions. This is a point its “discoverer” Campbell Harvey hammers home in his article. He explains that an inversion is usually followed by a recession within 12-18 months. The yield curve has not been inverted since before the Crisis, but just did so on Friday.

FINSUM: One of the important points Harvey makes is that in order for the inversion to really indicate a recession, it needs to remain in place for at least three months. We are only at one day.

The Daily FINSUMMARY- Sponsored by ETF Action

US markets hit five-month highs as major averages climbed steadily up and to the right throughout the day.  A day after the Fed announced a very dovish position, tech shares (Apple) and positive earnings led domestic equities higher.  At the close, the S&P 500 (SPY 1.13%), the Dow (DIA 0.89%), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ 1.56%) all gained.

Jobless claims were down W/W (and below consensus estimates) and the Philadelphia manufacturing survey had mixed results.  Current conditions rebounded from last month, buoyed by increases in new orders and shipments.  However, future expectations fell to a three-year low.  Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Indicators Index rose for the first time in five months, primarily due to a bounce in equity markets and accommodative financial conditions.

Earnings & Movers: Micron Technology (MU 9.62%) was up big after beating estimates after yesterday's close while Apple surged (AAPL 3.68%) and hit a four month high on several analyst upgrades.  Darden (DRI 6.87%) was up on an earnings beat before the bell and Nike fell after hours on a revenue miss.  It was a bad day for Biogen (BIIB -29.23%) after its Alzheimer's drug was discontinued due to ineffectiveness.

Small-caps (IJR 1.31%) edged out large-caps (IVV 1.12%) but mid-caps (IJH 1.35%) led all sizes (and still do YTD).  With 10 of 11 sectors gaining, tech (XLK 2.51%) provided leadership on the shoulders of Apple while Financials (XLF -0.31%) lagged again, pushed down by banks (KBE -1.03%).

Emerging markets (EEM 0.14%) narrowly outperformed developed ex-U.S. (EFA -0.06%) as global regions were mixed.  Latin America (ILF -1.70%) was dragged lower by clouding uncertainty surrounding Brazil's (EWZ -2.30%) pension reform after former Brazilian President Temer was arrested on corruption charges.  The U.K. (EWU -0.18%) fell along with Developed Europe (IEV -0.27%) as EU officials deliberate over possible extension deadlines for Brexit.

Treasury yields remained largely unchanged with the 10-year settling at 2.54%.  Muted movement in yields had the Ag (AGG 0.02%) mostly flat while Investment Grade (LQD 0.19%) bested High Yield (HYG -0.02%).  While the 10-2 year spread remains at ~13 basis points, the spread between the 10-year and the 3-month T-bill dipped below 10 basis points for the first time since 2007.

The Dollar advanced (UUP 0.63%) as broad commodities declined (DJP -0.35%) along with Energy (DBE -0.67%), Precious Metals (DBP -0.42%), and Industrial Metals (DBB -1.18%).

(New York)

It finally happened. After dangling on the edge of an inversion for months, the US yield curve has just officially crossed into one. The gap between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields is now negative. 10-year yields have been falling, recently hitting a low of 2.439%. Yield curve inversions are seen as the most reliable indicator of forthcoming recessions. Yields have been falling as a reaction to a highly dovish Fed and weakening economic data.

FINSUM: This is a reason to worry about he economy, but remember that there is often a long lag between an inversion and a peak in the stock market.

(Frankfurt)

In another sign of the deteriorating global economy, bond yields in Europe are once again moving negative. German Bund yields fell in trading recently and are now below zero. The move reflects the recently weak data coming out of Europe as fears grow about a recession there. Europe had seen negative bond yields for a long period until the brief bout of economic strength over the last couple of years.

FINSUM: Can the US be the odd man out in deflecting the global downturn? We have done it before, but this time feels different.