Displaying items by tag: active management

2023 saw many twists and turns in financial markets. Yet, one enduring trend was the growth of active and fixed income ETFs as measured by inflows and new ETF launches. Andres Rincon, the Head of ETF Sales and Strategy at TD Securities, shares why this was the case and what’s next for 2024.

A major factor is that mutual funds had net outflows, while ETFs had nearly an equivalent amount of inflows. This is an indication of a secular shift as investors and institutions increasingly favor ETFs due to more liquidity and transparency. In response, many asset managers are now converting fixed income mutual funds into active ETFs or offer dual versions.

Fixed income ETFs also benefited from yields being at their highest level in decades in addition to an uncertain economic outlook. Despite the rally in fixed income in the last couple of months of 2023, Rincon notes that investors had been positioning themselves for a downturn in the economy and pivot in Fed policy starting early in the year. 

Flows into active fixed income ETFs have also been strong, given that fixed income is more complex than equities. This is despite these ETFs typically having higher fees. Yet, active managers are able to take advantage of inefficiencies that are unavailable to passive funds. And, active is a particularly good fit for the current moment when there is indecision about the timing and extent of the Fed’s next move.

Finsum: TD’s Andres Rincon discusses what drove the surge of inflows into fixed income and active ETFs last year. And, why these trends should continue in 2024. 

There’s a major drawback to today’s hyper-connected world where investors are constantly receiving financial advice that is mostly short-term and doesn’t necessarily have the investors’ best interests in mind. Contrast that approach to a long-term, fundamental based approach that is based on timeless principles rather than impulsive thinking.

Recently, there has been a narrative that individuals should be buying individual bonds. Adam Abbas, a portfolio manager at Oakmark Funds, pushed back against this notion and made the case for why most investors are better off with mutual funds and ETFs. 

He acknowledges that bonds look very appealing given where rates are relative to historic levels and that default rates for high-quality securities are likely to remain low. However, the risk climbs when investors start ‘reaching for yield’ which tends to happen with individual investors. Therefore, some sort of comprehensive credit analysis is required from a bottom-up perspective. 

Further, most individual investors will not be able to sufficiently diversify their portfolios. This means that their portfolios would be damaged by a corporate bond default. In addition to understanding companies, investors also need to have a grasp on the macro picture as factors like inflation or rate policy can also impact returns. 

Given these difficulties, most investors are better off choosing an astute active manager to invest in bonds as they will conduct proper due diligence and ensure that portfolios are sufficiently diversified. 

Finsum: There’s a trend of individual investors buying individual bonds. Oakmark’s Adam Abbas pushes back against this and makes the case for why most investors are better off with a mutual fund or ETF. 

According to a survey conducted of attendees at the VettaFi Income Strategy Symposium, 60% are looking to add fixed income ETF exposure from cash and/or equities. This aligns with the view of fund managers on the panel who also believe that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its hiking cycle. 

John Croke, Vanguard’s head of active fixed income product strategy, commented that this is a good time to invest in fixed income. He sees the economy heading for a mild recession in the middle of the year despite the better than expected, recent Q3 GDP figures. He agreed with attendees that the hiking cycle is in its final innings and believes that the Fed funds rate will be closer to 4% rather than 5%. 

For investors looking to up their fixed income exposure, he recommends an ETF such as the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND). BND offers exposure to a diversified basket of investment-grade, US debt. He also recommends the Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF (VUSB) for investors looking to exchange cash for bonds. VUSB is composed of a diversified basket of high-quality and medium-quality bonds with an average maturity between 0 and 2 years. 

Finsum: According to a survey of attendees at the VettaFi Strategic Income Symposium, 60% of advisors are looking to increase their fixed income ETF allocation in 2024. 

There’s been an ongoing debate about passive strategies vs active strategies in equities and fixed income. While passive strategies have generally proven to outperform in equities, the same is not true for fixed income. In fixed income, active managers have outperformed. Over the last decade, the average active intermediate-term bond fund has outperformed its benchmark, 60% of the time. 

According to Guggenheim, this can be partially attributed to risk mitigation strategies which are not available in passive funds. Another factor is that the equity markets are much more efficiently priced than fixed income since there is more price discovery, publicly reported financials, and a smaller universe of securities. Equities are also dominated by market-cap, weighted indices.

Relative to equities, there is much less information about fixed income securities, less liquidity and price discovery, a larger market at $55 trillion vs $44 trillion, and many more securities especially when accounting for different durations and credit ratings. Additionally, less than half of fixed income securities are in the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (Agg) benchmark. All of these factors mean that there are more opportunities to generate alpha by astute active managers. 

Finsum: There is an ongoing debate on whether active or passive is better for fixed income. Here’s why Guggenheim believes that active will outperform against passive. 

Active ETFs represent a fraction of the overall market of investable assets, but the future looks very promising given current growth rates. This is evident through the bevy of new active ETF launches which will continue in 2024. Last year, 75% of ETF launches were active. Additionally, according to Cerulli, 95% of ETF issuers have existing plans or are planning to launch active ETFs in the coming year. 

Some of these active ETFs will be conversions of active mutual funds, while others will follow a dual-class structure. In terms of why active ETFs are gaining traction, the biggest factor is the tax benefits of the ETF structure. In contrast, many investors in active mutual funds may find themselves with a tax bill if the fund takes profits on winning positions.

Additionally, the fee structure of ETFs is much simpler while it also leads to more transparency for investors. This appeals to many investors who are then able to hedge risk more effectively.  Currently, most of the focus on issuers is for transparent, active ETFs with 59% of launches falling in this category. One caveat is that active ETFs have failed to penetrate the institutional market as 80% of assets currently come from retail investors.

Finsum: Active ETFs had a strong year in 2023 and even more launches are planned for 2024. Here are the major factors driving the category’s growth.