Displaying items by tag: ETFs

There are many ways for investors to buy Treasuries, but the increasingly popular option is through the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which is a blend of 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. Currently, this fixed income ETF offers a yield of 3% and is down 2% YTD.

The ETF has been hammered in recent sessions due to Fitch’s downgrade of US debt, larger than expected budget deficits, and rates that are likely to stay elevated at least into Q1 of next year. Another potential reason for TLT’s poor performance in recent sessions is that Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman unveiled a bet against TLT and long-duration Treasuries. 

Ackman shared his reasoning on Twitter. He believes that ‘structural’ changes in the world such as the re-shoring of supply chains, an increase in defense spending, electrification of the energy sector, aging demographics, and a tight labor market are indicators that inflation is going to remain high for a meaningfully long period of time. 

Based on this, he believes that long-term Treasuries will need to offer higher yields to lure investors, while they remain currently priced as if inflation is transitory given the 30-year’s current yield of 4.2% inflation. He believes that it should be yielding between 5.5% and 6% given his expectations of inflation, implying losses between 31% and 43%. 

Finsum: Bill Ackman is one of the most successful investors of his generation. Recently, he unveiled a short position against long Treasuries and TLT, one of the most popular fixed income ETFs.

After a rough 2022 for fixed income, 2023 has seen the asset class eke out modest gains. But, it hasn’t been smooth sailing especially in recent months as most of the gains have been wiped out amid a deluge of positive economic data which is increasing the odds that the Fed’s rate hikes are not done and increases the risk of inflation re-igniting.

However, this hasn’t slowed inflows into fixed income ETFs. According to ETF.com’s Michelle Lodge, the major reasons are higher yields, increased awareness from advisors and institutional investors, and continued uneasiness about the macro environment. In fact, inflows into fixed income ETFs are outpacing inflows into equity ETFs. 

Many believe there is a virtuous cycle at work. Fixed income ETFs are increasing liquidity which in turn, is leading to more institutional money flowing into the asset class. The virtuous cycle could pick up more velocity with active fixed income growing in popularity as many of these funds look for opportunities in less liquid areas of various durations and credit quality. 

Overall, the popularity of fixed income ETFs is a major development in 2023 even despite a volatile couple of years for bonds. 

FinSum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing strong inflows in 2023. This can be attributed to higher yields, a shaky macro outlook, and strong demand from advisors and institutional investors.

Until a couple of months ago, the market’s consensus forecast was that inflation would gradually ebb lower as the Fed’s rate hikes would choke off economic activity, resulting in an inevitable recession. Needless to say, this scenario was very bullish for fixed income as it would let investors take advantage of higher yields and then profit from appreciation in bond prices.

Of course, reality had a different plan. Rather than a recession, we are seeing the economy continue to grow and add jobs. In fact, there is increasing evidence that the business cycle could be turning higher. Similarly, inflation has proven to be stickier than anticipated, and many believe we could be in a regime of ‘higher for longer’ inflation.

For ETF.com, Lisa Barr spoke to Monish Verma of Vardhan Wealth Management to get his insights on how to navigate this terrain. He believes that inflation will be structurally higher over the next decade which means more volatility in fixed income. 

In terms of duration, he likes the short-end at the moment but recommends tactically adding longer-duration closer to the end of the year as the Fed nears the end of its hiking cycle. He also recommends fixed income ETFs that are low-cost and diversified as offering the most upside. 

FinSum: Many fixed income investors were caught off guard when the economy and inflation proved to be more resilient than expected. Here are some strategies to consider if inflation continues to linger.

In an article for TheStreet, David Dierking discusses two ETFs offering investors weekly dividends. It’s an innovative offering by SoFi as most equities pay out dividends on a quarterly basis, while fixed income ETFs offer monthly payouts. 

In contrast, the SoFi Weekly Dividend ETF (WKLY) and the SoFi Weekly Income ETF (TGIF) are structured to give investors a weekly payout. WKLY is made up of a blend of equities and fixed income. It invests primarily in dividend-paying companies with a market cap of over $1 billion. Some of its largest holdings include Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson, and JPMorgan Chase. It pays out $0.02 per share on a weekly basis which is a 2.2% annual yield. 

TGIF invests primarily in high-yield fixed income and is considered a bond ETF. It mostly invests in short and intermediate-term duration and also has an active management structure which gives it wider latitude to take advantage of opportunities in the credit space. It pays out $0.07 per share on a weekly basis and has an annualized yield of 3.8%. Since inception, it had one dividend hike from $0.05 per share to $0.07.

FinSum: SOFI has introduced an equity fund and fixed income fund which offers weekly dividends. Here are some important considerations.

Todd Rosenbluth, the Head of Research for Vettafi, recently sat down with Joanna Gallegos, the co-founder of BondBloxx, about the state of the fixed income market and BondBloxx’s fixed income ETF offerings. BondBloxx is the only ETF issuer which specializes in fixed income.

Gallegos believes that the dynamic has shifted in a structural way for the asset class, following middling returns and yields over the past decade, amid a period of low rates and low inflation. Now, there is constant investor demand on the short-end of the curve given that yields are between 4% and 5% with minimal risk.

Demand is also quite strong on the long-end especially as many market participants are concerned that the economy is nearing a recession and inflationary pressures are abating as well.

However, Gallegos is not as concerned about a recession, believing that risks are already priced in. In fact, she recommends investors seek exposure to high-yield, corporate debt given elevated yields despite corporate balance sheets being in strong shape and sees upside in the event of an uptick in economic growth or easing of Fed policy.

Finsum: Joanna Gallegos is the co-founder of BondBloxx which is the only ETF issuer specializing in fixed income. She’s quite bullish on the asset class and sees the most upside in high-yield, corporate debt.