Wealth Management
In an opinion piece for Bloomberg, former NY Fed Chair Bill Dudley shared his thoughts on why there is likely to be more weakness in Treasuries despite increasing indications that inflation is bending lower.
While longer-term yields have declined as a result, they are starting to creep higher as the economy continues to show momentum with some signs of an acceleration. Hopes that the Fed’s hiking cycle was over seem premature as Fed funds future markets now show hikes at the next two meetings.
Even if the Fed is close to the end, a robust economy means that rates will likely stay elevated at these levels for a prolonged period of time. Further, Dudley sees structurally large deficits, baby boomers spending down retirement accounts, and capital expenditures in renewables and reshoring supply chains as reasons that inflation is likely to linger above the Fed’s 2% target.
Higher inflation will also erode returns on longer-term Treasuries, leading to higher yields. This has the potential to cause stress to the financial system as we saw with the regional banking crisis especially as Treasuries make up the capital base of so many institutions. However, Dudley sees one silver lining as it could force politicians to address the country’s weakening fiscal situation.
Finsum: Former NY Fed Chair Bill Dudley doesn’t share the market’s optimism that the worst of the inflation surge is over. He sees structurally higher inflation as a headwind for Treasuries.
In a piece for Vettafi’s ETFTrends, James Comtois covers how direct indexing can improve portfolios through increased diversification while also leading to savings on capital gains taxes. The strategy achieves both objectives by helping portfolios from becoming overly concentrated.
Typically, no stock should account for more than 10% of a portfolio due to the risk of a significant decline in price or a bankruptcy filing. Portfolios can become overly concentrated due to a client receiving stock options, early investments in a company, or large holdings of vested stock.
For clients in these unique situations, the traditional investing strategy would not suffice. Instead, they need a unique solution. Simply selling these positions is not prudent as it could lead to a massive tax bill.
A better option is direct indexing which lets clients own the actual index holdings in their portfolio. Then, the portfolio can be adjusted to reduce overconcentration. Further, tax losses can be harvested on a regular basis during periods of market volatility. Subsequently, holdings of the overconcentrated position can be sold with the capital gains offset by these harvested losses.
Finsum: A unique problem for some investors is becoming overconcentrated in one position. Direct indexing offers a solution as it can help reduce the tax bill of selling these positions and lead to more diversification.
Following the abysmal performance of stocks and bonds in 2022, it’s understandable that alternative investments have been gaining strong traction over the past year. Moreso when considering that alternatives delivered better returns while reducing volatility.
In a CNBC article, Kate Dore discusses survey results from the Financial Planning Association that show nearly 30% of advisors are investing in ‘alternatives’ for their clients. These advisors mentioned diversification, lower portfolio risk, and higher returns as major factors in this decision.
In contrast, 30% of advisors are aware of alternative investments but are electing to not put client funds in these vehicles. Many of these advisors cited higher fees and expenses, lower liquidity, higher borrowing costs, and a lack of transparency as major concerns. Another concern is that clients are not able to easily access these funds in case of an emergency.
There’s a wide disparity in the asset class as it includes a variety of categories like hedge funds, private equity, real estate, commodities, and structured products. Therefore, even more due diligence is required given lower levels of regulation and oversight.
Finsum: Alternative investments are increasingly being embraced by advisors, especially after their strong performance in 2022. However, some continue to eschew the category due to a variety of concerns.
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In an article for ThinkAdvisor, John Manganaro shares some concerning research that shows most advisors are not preparing for succession planning and that it poses a significant threat to the industry. It’s also commonly cited as a risk by the leaders of various advisories as there are forecasts of a massive wave of retirements by advisors over the next decade.
Many are incorrectly assuming that they will be able to gracefully exit the business and hand over their clients to the next generation. Yet, this is easier said than done since it assumes that the incoming advisor will have the talent and ability to serve clients and help them reach their financial goals.
There are additional challenges such as many clients may not be comfortable with younger or newer advisors and elect to go elsewhere. Often, relationships between the retiring advisor and the newer one can fray over questions about leadership, compensation, and the financial structure of the new arrangement.
It’s ironic because advisors intuitively believe in long-term planning to help their clients reach their goals. Yet, many are not doing the same for their practices.
Finsum: Financial advisors need to embrace long-term planning to ensure a successful exit with the same diligence that they help their clients build a plan to reach their financial goals.
In an article for USNews, Tony Dong covers the opportunity for investors in high-yield fixed income and equity ETFs. Currently, investors can lock in risk-free yields above 5% due to rates being at their highest level in decades.
However, these short-term rates are not likely to linger at these levels for a long period of time due to inflation peaking and now starting to roll over as well as increasing risk of a recession. Although there is divided opinion on which outcome will prevail, the reality is that either scenario will result in lower rates and yields.
For investors who don’t believe that a recession will materialize, they should be salivating at the prospect of buying a high-yield fixed income or equity ETF to lock in these yields. These ETFs offer higher yields than Treasuries, but they also offer the potential for appreciation if economic growth surprises to the upside.
For instance, the Invesco Fundamental High Yield Corporate Bond ETF is a diversified basket of high-yield, corporate bonds. These are riskier than investment-grade bonds but less so than equities. Currently, it pays a yield of 6.7% with an expense ratio of 0.5%.
Finsum: Investors should consider taking advantage of the highest rates seen in decades through high-yield ETFs.
At the Aspen Ideas Festival, Blackrock CEO Larry Fink surprised many when he said that he will no longer use the term ‘ESG’ because it had been misappropriated by the far left and the far right. Of course, Blackrock and Fink have been one of the leading proponents of the movement and used their station as one of the world’s largest asset managers to push corporations to consider these factors when making decisions.
Now, many conservatives are pushing back and want to end the consideration of ESG factors when making investment decisions. At the state level, legislation has already been passed in many red states to ban ESG investing by state funds. Florida actually pulled $2 billion out of Blackrock funds to protest its ESG stance.
Fink’s verbal retreat is an acknowledgement of these forces, but it’s uncertain whether this is simply a rhetorical change or a change in behavior. Previously, Fink has spoken passionately about the risks that climate change poses to companies and the importance of governance and diversity at the highest levels. He believes that long-term financial results are enhanced by considering these factors in decision-making by executives.
Finsum: Blackrock CEO Larry Fink is one of the original and most passionate believers in ESG investing. However due to recent political blowback, he has said that he will stop using the term.