Wealth Management
Donald Trump has promised to accelerate U.S. economic growth, but the economy already surged through 2024, likely ending the year with a 3% annualized GDP gain in the fourth quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow. If accurate, annual growth for 2024 would range from 2.4% to 2.7%, a rate comparable to pre-pandemic levels but unexpected in the post-pandemic era.
This surprising strength is credited to two main drivers: an expanding population fueled by increased immigration and a notable boost in productivity, partially attributed to advancements in technology like AI. Yet, challenges remain, including persistent inflation, elevated interest rates that have slowed home and vehicle sales, and a weaker hiring environment despite low unemployment.
Businesses are optimistic about Trump’s plans to cut taxes, streamline regulations, and reduce energy costs, though his proposals for higher tariffs and mass deportations raise fears of higher material and labor costs.
Finsum: The outlook is upbeat, with early indicators of 2025 showing confidence, underscoring the nation’s resurgence as a global economic leader.
Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, shared his outlook on large-cap stocks during an appearance on CNBC. Bailey expressed optimism about the U.S. economic outlook for 2025 and beyond, highlighting job growth and strong macroeconomic conditions as key factors.
He emphasized that large-cap companies are better positioned than small caps to deliver consistent long-term earnings growth and exceed expectations. Three of the large-cap stocks have seen significant gains due to favorable market conditions and growth prospects.
The selection of these stocks, all with market capitalizations exceeding $10 billion, was based on their top performance over the 30 days ending January 22, 2025. Among the standouts are SoFi Technologies, United Airlines, and Rocket Lab, which benefited from strong earnings, strategic partnerships, and growth in innovative sectors, cementing their positions as key players in their respective industries.
Finsum: Finding large caps without technology could be the short term play with all of the tech volatility.
Cresset, a $60 billion RIA, has secured a $150 million minority investment from Constellation Wealth Capital, an alternative asset manager specializing in long-term investments in wealth management firms and multi-family offices. Constellation now holds less than a 10% equity stake, with employees and clients retaining majority ownership, ensuring the firm's alignment with client priorities.
The funds will support Cresset’s efforts to enhance its platform, technology, and talent recruitment initiatives. Karl Heckenberg, president of Constellation, praised Cresset’s commitment to client success and shared their "100-year vision" for sustained growth and innovation.
Cresset’s co-founder, Avy Stein, described the investment as a strong endorsement of the firm’s business model and growth strategy. He also welcomed the Constellation partnership as a way to further transform how clients experience wealth management.
Finsum: This investment into technology is a reflection of the growing importance of innovation in advisors decision making processes.
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Dividend ETFs are an excellent way to generate passive income, as they typically hold portfolios of income-generating investments, allowing investors to avoid active portfolio management.
- The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) offers exposure to 100 high-yielding, dividend-paying stocks with strong financials, boasting a 3.6% yield that surpasses the S&P 500’s average.
- The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) combines a defensive equity portfolio with an options overlay strategy, delivering a remarkable 8% yield driven by monthly income distributions and market volatility.
- Meanwhile, the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) provides effortless access to the commercial real estate market by investing in over 150 REITs, such as Prologis, which offers a 3.5% yield and impressive dividend growth.
These ETFs offer a diverse range of income opportunities, from dividend-focused equity to real estate and innovative option strategies. Their reliable and growing yields make them ideal choices for anyone seeking consistent passive income.
Finsum: Dividend ETFs By investing in dividend ETFs, you can enjoy both steady cash flow and long-term financial growth.
In a striking twist, the Biden administration’s final week coincided with the best stock market performance since Trump’s re-election, fueled by a bond market rally following unexpectedly mild inflation data. The S&P 500 surged nearly 3%, just shy of the 6000 mark, while the Dow posted its strongest week in months, aided by a sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields.
Despite this upbeat sendoff, Biden’s term closes with a mixed economic legacy: robust job creation and stock market gains were offset by a historic drop in real disposable income and surging national debt. The inflation respite behind the rally may not indicate lasting relief, as core inflation remains stubbornly stalled near 3.3%.
Rising crude oil and gasoline prices threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. As the market shifts focus to Trump’s fiscal policy, investors brace for more stimulative measures that could push long-term Treasury yields past 5%, setting the stage for new challenges in both equity and bond markets.
Finsum: The most recent Fed minutes suggest a strong concern over taming inflation in the new administration so keep those inflation strategies handy.
The box office saw indie films continue to make waves, led by “The Brutalist,” which expanded to 338 screens and earned $1.98 million over three days and $2.4 million for the holiday frame. The three-hour-plus epic has impressed with strong Imax sales and a total gross of $5.86 million, building momentum as Oscar nominations near.
Meanwhile, Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu” added $4.3 million to its $89.4 million domestic total, and Timothée Chalamet’s “A Complete Unknown” collected $3.8 million, reaching a $57.6 million cume.
A24’s “Babygirl,” starring Nicole Kidman, continues its steady climb with $2 million this weekend, bringing its total to $25.4 million. Other contenders like “The Substance” and Sean Baker’s “Anora” saw notable expansions. As the race to the Oscars heats up, indies are proving they can compete with the heavyweights, offering audiences a rich variety of standout cinematic experiences.
Finsum: While long, The Brutalist is a call back to an American cinema tradition in the vein of The Godfather or There Will be Blood.