Wealth Management
Emerging market assets often witness significant yet brief fluctuations around Election Day, with their performance linked to the electoral outcome. Historical data suggests that emerging market assets fare better during periods of a unified US government or with a Democratic president. However, this data is limited, spanning only eight presidential election cycles.
To gauge this year's potential impact on emerging markets, it's crucial to analyze key channels of influence, including changes in US macroeconomic variables, trade policy, and geopolitics. The outcome of the US election could significantly affect these factors, influencing emerging market assets. Trump's presidency might lead to faster US economic growth but increase uncertainty in trade and geopolitics, while a Biden presidency could maintain the status quo.
Despite political considerations, long-term portfolio construction should remain impartial, with emerging market assets playing a pivotal role due to their diversification benefits and potential for higher returns.
Finsum: Don’t let political biases crowd out your investment decisions.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) is aiming to become one of the top 5 providers of model portfolios. Currently, GSAM is the ninth largest in terms of asset managers, with model portfolio assets of $14.5 billion. Over the next decade, model portfolios are projected to have more than $11 trillion in assets in total.
According to Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, the co-CIO of GSAM’s multi-asset solutions group, the firm’s strategy is to outgrow its competitors rather than take existing market share as model portfolio assets are projected to grow 20% annually. Model portfolios consist of off-the-shelf strategies and custom models. Demand for the latter has been robust among wealthy clients.
Increasing adoption by financial advisors is the primary growth driver for the category. By decreasing time and resources spent on investment management, advisors can add more value in areas like client service, tax planning, and estate management.
Currently, the leading provider of model portfolios among asset managers is Blackrock, followed by Wilshire Associates, Capital Group, and Vanguard. In 2019, GSAM bought S&P Global Market Intelligence, and it acquired NextCapital Group in 2022 to build the foundations of its model portfolio business.
Finsum: Goldman Sachs is aiming to grow its model portfolio segment and become a top-five provider among asset managers. Forecasts are for the category to grow 20% annually and exceed $11 trillion by 2030.
There is a momentous demographic turnover that reshapes the financial advisor landscape. According to Cerulli, nearly 40% of advisors will be retiring in the next decade. Currently, 60% of assets are managed by advisors who are 55 and older, while the average age of an advisor is 50.
This reality means that older advisors need to start thinking about succession planning. Proactive and proper succession planning can also help advisors maximize the value of their practice and ensure that their clients remain in good hands. Younger advisors should be formulating a strategy to capitalize on this opportunity.
Some key elements to successfully transition to the next generation are recruiting to replenish talent, appealing to younger investors, and scaling engagement and client service by leveraging technology.
At current rates, there are not enough new advisors to offset retirements and attrition. Therefore, it’s imperative that practices invest in recruitment efforts to identify talent and set them up for success. This entails looking at recruits from nontraditional backgrounds who have strong people and organizational skills.
Another important step is to gear prospecting and client service for millennials and Generation Z. This means understanding their perspective and becoming fluent with technology. Finally, advisors should be investing in technology that can help them scale personalized service to increase their capabilities and serve more clients.
Finsum: Succession planning will be even more critical in the coming decade due to the massive retirement wave in the financial advice industry. Here are some common elements of successful succession planning.
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Forget active versus passive investing, the future is about having both, but with a twist: direct indexing. This strategy combines the low fees and market tracking of passive investing with the tax benefits and customization often desired by active investors.
Direct indexing lets you build a portfolio that mimics a market index, like the S&P 500, but with a twist. You can personalize it to minimize your tax bill through tax-loss harvesting, a strategy that sells losing investments to offset capital gains and lower your taxes. This can potentially lead to significant savings compared to traditional index funds, and research shows the alpha can be as high as 1%.
Technology plays a key role in direct indexing. It allows advisors to tailor the portfolio to your specific needs and tax situation, while still ensuring it closely tracks the chosen index. This level of customization combined with the potential for tax savings is fueling the growth of direct indexing, particularly within separately managed accounts.
Finsum: While active bonds may have an advantage, the semi-passive direct indexing offers advantageous tax alpha.
Financial advisors are flocking to independence. Some who switched to the RIA model, say it was a game-changer for their career, and they have gained an "entrepreneurial mindset" while creating lower-cost programs for clients.
This trend is widespread. Cerulli reports the RIA channel is experiencing the fastest growth in advisor headcount. The number of independent RIAs and advisors working there have grown steadily over the past decade. Advisors are seeking independence for several reasons. Clients demand lower fees, and RIAs allow advisors to deliver quality service at a competitive price. Wirehouses, on the other hand, are raising advisor costs.
One highlights of the RIA fee-based model is it has made RIAs a target for private equity firms. Cerulli predicts RIAs will control nearly a third of the market by 2027. Advisors like Harry Figgie see this as inevitable due to the open architecture, financial benefits, and equity-building opportunities offered by the RIA model.
Finsum: The RIA model has been made easier by the technological advancements in advisor space, and this trend might continue to ramp up.
Many financial advisors are understandably uneasy about artificial intelligence (AI). Like any new technology, there will be considerable opportunities for those who can properly leverage and implement it.
However, it’s also important to understand its limitations, as it lacks human intuition and the ability to understand and respond to a client's deeper, emotional needs. Instead, AI can be thought of as a way to enhance an advisors' capabilities and can be quite useful in areas such as fraud detection, estate planning, and tax strategies. Additionally, many advisors are already using technology that has elements of AI, especially for making forecasts and future projections.
AI excels at tasks that require pattern recognition, optimization, and identifying trends. This means that it has applications in multiple areas such as prospecting, marketing, and planning. For example, estate planning is an area where AI is having a positive impact, as documents can be more quickly and easily understood by advisors and clients. It can also be used to streamline the process of updating documents based on notes taken from previous client interactions.
Overall, AI is like previous technologies in that it can potentially help advisors gain more leverage, increase productivity, and result in more time spent on value-added activities. With financial advice, it can be particularly useful in terms of increasing responsiveness and personalization on a larger scale.
Finsum: Artificial intelligence will affect nearly every industry and change how businesses operate. Here is how financial advisors should be thinking about this technology.