Displaying items by tag: private markets
Has the Well Dried Up For PE’s Oil Obsession?
Private equity’s long-standing infatuation with oil and gas appears to be cooling. In the first quarter of 2024, only five energy-focused funds reached final close, and notably, none raised over $1 billion—a stark departure from the sector’s 2014 heyday, when fundraising totals topped $78 billion globally.
Today, traditional hydrocarbons are taking a back seat as investor interest pivots toward renewable energy and broader energy transition strategies. This shift reflects growing pressure from institutional investors and ESG-conscious stakeholders who are increasingly wary of fossil fuel exposure.
The fundraising gap highlights more than just a cyclical downturn; it signals a structural change in capital priorities. With clean energy rising to the top of the private capital agenda, oil and gas funds may need to reinvent their value proposition—or risk being left behind.
Finsum: CNL Strategic Capital is focused on value creation so this might be a great opportunity to explore the latest trends in PE.
Private Markets More Exposed to a Recession than Before
Private credit has grown so large and intertwined with banks and insurers that it now poses a systemic risk in future financial crises, according to a new Moody’s Analytics study co-authored by economists and regulators.
The report warns that the opaque nature of private credit and its deepening ties to traditional finance could amplify financial shocks due to increased interconnectedness. Since the 2008 crisis, banks have reduced lending amid tighter regulations, creating room for private credit funds—often lending to riskier, heavily indebted companies—to flourish with less oversight.
Researchers used business development companies as a proxy for the sector and found their market behavior is now more correlated with broader financial stress than in the past. Although private credit firms argue they are less prone to panics due to their long-term investor base, banks are still deeply exposed through indirect relationships like fund financing and risk transfers.
Finsum: While private markets tend to be insulated from recessions compared to their public counter parts it’s important to keep this risk in mind when investing
P/E Has Strong Momentum
Private equity firms began the year with strong momentum and over $1.6 trillion in dry powder, eager to deploy capital amid improving deal activity. However, rising trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty are making investors more cautious, with many GPs expecting tariffs to slow deployment over the coming months.
Despite this, Q1 saw a surge in deals—volume rose over 45% and value more than doubled year-over-year—driven by large transactions like Sycamore Partners’ take-private of Walgreens. Market volatility has paradoxically raised firms’ risk appetite, with nearly three-quarters indicating they’re more willing to act on mispriced opportunities across sectors such as defense, middle-market manufacturing, and distressed assets.
Amid these trends, firms such as CNL Strategic Capital are shifting focus to value creation within their portfolio of companies seeking long-term growth
Finsum: Private Markets are a great way to sidestep current volatility
Euro PE Markets Face Adversity, but Have High Opportunities
After a record-setting 2024, Europe’s private equity market entered 2025 under pressure from geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and waning investor confidence.
Deal activity declined notably in Q1, with total value dropping 24.6% and a sharp pivot toward smaller, strategic add-on deals indicating a defensive investment posture. Exit activity also slowed, with a 25.2% drop in exit count and extended holding periods, as firms waited out volatile public markets and weak valuation multiples.
Yet some regions, like the Nordics and DACH, outperformed thanks to local stability and stronger monetary frameworks. On the fundraising front, European PE firms raised €23.7 billion in Q1, with strong interest in mid-market vehicles and new entrants like Thoma Bravo signaling optimism.
Finsum: Despite near-term caution, the market showed resilience and adaptability, laying the groundwork for a more stable second half.
Can Private Credit Turn it Around in This Interest Rate Environment
Private equity thrived during the low-interest-rate era, leveraging debt to enhance returns, but changing financial conditions are testing its resilience. While assets under management continue to grow, firms are struggling to deploy capital and exit investments, with a rising backlog of unsold assets.
Higher interest rates have complicated deal economics, and a shifting IPO landscape has limited traditional exit strategies. Regulatory scrutiny, particularly on antitrust grounds, has also slowed transactions, making liquidity harder to generate.
Despite these challenges, liquidity remains accessible through dividend recapitalizations and secondary sales, suggesting the industry’s issues are cyclical rather than existential.
Finsum: If we are entering a more volatile financial era, private equity’s debt-driven model may need to adapt to a world less favorable to leverage.