Displaying items by tag: private credit

Many investors are hopeful that inflation will continue moving lower which will provide relief for fixed income and equities as the Fed could start loosening monetary policy. However, KKR does not believe it’s likely. Instead, they believe we are in the midst of a ‘regime change’ in terms of the macroeconomic landscape which will require investors to adopt new portfolio management strategies.

In essence, they see inflation being structurally higher due to factors such as entrenched fiscal deficits, labor shortages, energy transitions, and increased geopolitical risk. With these conditions, stocks and bonds are more correlated as evidenced by the last 2 years. The firm believes that investors need to increase their allocation to real assets with recurring yields as a source of diversification, given the increase in bond market volatility. 

Rather than the traditional real assets such as REITs, TIPs, and precious metals, they find value in real assets that have collateral-based cash flows like private real estate to provide positive returns while dampening portfolio risk. 

Even if their outlook on inflation proves to be incorrect, KKR believes that real assets should outperform given that they remain bullish on economic growth and see Q4 and 2024 GDP coming in above expectations. 

Finsum: KKR is bullish on real assets including private real estate as it believes inflation is going to remain structurally high and that bonds are not providing sufficient diversification.

A combination of factors has led to the worst housing affordability in decades. During the pandemic, there was a surge in real estate prices as many moved out of urban locations to the suburbs due to the rise of remote and hybrid work arrangements. 

This increase in demand also coincided with a tight supply-demand dynamic as new home construction has lagged population growth ever since the Great Recession and subprime mortgage crisis. Another factor supporting demand is that Millennials are entering their peak consumption years in their 30s and 40s. 

Additionally, after more than a decade of low rates, current monetary policy is at its most restrictive in decades. Thus, mortgage rates are now hovering above 7%, while they were at 3% for most of 2020. 

According to Andy Walden, the VP of enterprise research for ICE Mortgage Technology, household incomes will have to increase by 55%, home prices decline by 35% with mortgage rates back to 3%, for affordability to revert back to historical norms, or some combination of these factors. 

Of course, such dramatic developments are unlikely. Walden believes that inventories are a key leading indicator for home prices. In recent months, there has been a modest bump in listings, but nothing significant enough to affect affordability. 

Finsum: A combination of factors has led to housing becoming unaffordable for many prospective buyers, creating a major challenge for the real estate market.

The Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign surprisingly has had a muted impact on the broader economy as evidenced by continued expansion despite the highest rate in decades. In terms of the stated goal of curbing inflation, results are mixed as well. 

However, the vector which immediately responded to tighter policy is real estate given that affordability has declined due to higher rates. In some markets, activity has simply cooled, while in those with poor fundamentals, prices are falling more precipitously. 

Within real estate, commercial real estate (CRE) is the most challenged given oversupply and the recent rise of remote work. For Barron’s, Rob Csneryik covers why some contrarian investors are seeing opportunity in the beaten-down sector.

In essence, it’s a buyer’s market with so many traditional sources of funding out of the picture, leading to more favorable terms and higher returns. Further, there is less risk with values already down so much. Many believe that office occupancy rates will start to gradually rise especially if the economy does weaken which would give employers more leverage to force employees back to the office. CRE would also likely benefit from a mild recession as it would compel the Fed to cut rates which would turn a major headwind into a tailwind. 

Finsum: Commercial real estate is the weakest segment of the real estate market. However, some contrarians see opportunities amid the carnage.

Ever since the Fed embarked on its tightening campaign starting in the early months of 2022, the real estate market experienced the most immediate impact due to rising mortgage rates negatively affecting home affordability.

Initially, publicly traded real estate stocks saw deep drawdowns while private real estate performed much better. Now, this gap is beginning to shrink as private real estate has been following public real estate lower. One factor is that it’s increasingly becoming clear that high rates are not going to disappear anytime soon due to the resilience of the economy and inflation. In fact, inflationary pressures seem to be reigniting given the recent strength in oil and auto workers striking.

In terms of when private real estate will bottom, some indicators to watch are an increase in transaction volume even at lower prices, a change in monetary policy, and increase in lending standards. Currently, all 3 are working against private real estate given that many markets are ‘frozen’ as sellers are unwilling to cut prices, while buyers don’t see many attractive deals at current yields. The Fed’s focus remains on stamping out inflation whether through further hikes or keeping rates ‘higher for longer’. Finally, lending standards are unlikely to loosen especially with so many banks struggling with balance sheet issues and/or an inverted yield curve. 

Finsum: Private real estate was immune to the weakness in public real estate for so long. Find out why this is starting to change.

One of the consequences of tighter monetary policy is to curtail housing demand by squeezing affordability. As a result, all sorts of housing activity has cooled such as mortgage applications, new home construction, renovations, and house flipping. While there are all sorts of losers, it’s presenting an opportunity for many private real estate funds who are finding a buyer’s market.

 These funds raise money with multi year holding periods so are less affected by the change in the funding environment at least in the short and intermediate-term. Another factor in the real estate market is that many regional banks are pulling back from extending credit given their balance sheet concerns. Overall, it’s a risk for the broader economic outlook but a unique opportunity for private real estate investors.   

And, more money is being allocated to real estate - public and private. In the first-half of the year, 43% of institutions surveyed, increased their allocation to real estate by an average of 76 basis points. Sovereign wealth funds also increased real estate exposure from 6.9% to 7.9%. In terms of geography, private real estate continues to be dominated by North American investors.