You certainly won’t think of it this way, but Morgan Stanley is arguing that Apple is now a great healthcare play. The bank’s research team says Apple is on the verge of a major new product that will transform the healthcare space, meaning there could be a lot of value in the stock that is not being priced in. Katy Hubert of MS says “Apple is building a healthcare ecosystem and is poised to emerge as a leader in consumer-centric healthcare … Healthcare is a large, greenfield services opportunity for Apple”. She continued, saying “Unlike recent announcements on news, gaming, video, and payments, where Apple is joining existing competitors, healthcare is a market where Apple has the potential to lead digital disruption”. The stock is up strongly this year because investors are happy with its shift to a more services-oriented business model.
FINSUM: It is hard to speculate on the potential impact without know the product, but we must say Apple does seem to have a major opportunity if it can map a healthcare product onto the hundreds of millions of users of its products in the US alone.
American investors generally don’t pay enough attention to merging markets. We have such a big economy and markets that investing abroad often feels foreign and unnecessary. However, the diversification benefits of doing so can be huge, and right now may be an excellent time, says Morgan Stanley. The bank’s lead emerging markets strategist, Ruchir Sharma, is changing tune. For the last decade he said US shares, and particularly tech, would outperform. Now the pendulum is swinging back, with EM likely to take the lead.
FINSUM: EMs have obviously been beat up over the last decade, so there is certainly value to be had. The big worry for us is about global trade policy and how that constrains EM growth.
Morgan Stanley just put a big threat on the table, and they are not alone. The bank says that it may withdraw wealth management services entirely from states considering new fiduciary rules, such as Nevada. Wells Fargo issued a similar threat. A number of states, including Nevada, New York, New Jersey, and Maryland, are considering making their own fiduciary rules. Such rules would be a major headache to the brokerage industry as they would create patchwork rules across the country. Morgan Stanley said bluntly “Absent substantial changes to the [state] proposal, Morgan Stanley will be unable to provide brokerage services to residents of the state of Nevada”. Edward Jones, TDA, and Charles Schwab also said they would need to at least pair back offerings.
FINSUM: This is a strong move by the brokerage industry but we do not think it will work. The political mood in the states mean lawmakers would rather say “good riddance” than back off, but time will tell.
Morgan Stanley has just published a list investors should probably pay attention to. The bank’s research has chosen ten stocks which it says may tank. It is unusual for bank analysts to have negative views of stocks, but when they do, it is worth listening to. Without further ado, the list is: Abercrombie & Fitch, Avis Budget Group, Bed, Bath & Beyond, EQT, FitBit, Hertz Global Holdings, Juniper Networks, MSG Networks, Seaspan, and Tenneco.
FINSUM: The most interesting ones for us are the car rental companies (Hertz and Avis). They say ride-sharing is a risk, as is a decline in used car values. We agree with the former, but we think the latter is off base because as new car buying slows (as does the economy), used car sales will pick up.
Is there gain ahead or pain ahead? That is the question on every investors’ mind. Well, Morgan Stanley has an answer. The bank’s chief US equity strategist, Michael Wilson, says that the answer is more pain. The bank thinks we are in a “rolling bear market” and that stocks will reach bear status soon. “We think we get there in four to eight weeks”, says Wilson. The bank defines a bear market as a drop of 20% or more with no recovery for 12 months. “Risk-reward remains unattractive for us”, he added.
FINSUM: Morgan Stanley thinks a lot of these losses come down to the change in central bank policy. We agree with that but we also think investors are just anxious about what lays ahead in terms of a possible recession, trade war, and beyond.