Displaying items by tag: rally
The big inflation-driven bond sell-off has decidedly ended. In fact, bond yields have fallen considerably (with prices rising) over the last few weeks. The gains have prompted some investors to wonder if it is time to jump back into the long-term bond market. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America say an emphatic “no” to that idea. Goldman said the market moves this month have been “Noisy (and potentially temporary)”. They do not believe that yields will continue to fall, only that the chances of a big overshoot of how high they go have diminished.
FINSUM: Yields still seem likely to trend higher, but the market has bought into the idea that the Fed is not going to taper support any time soon, which means the lid is now on long-term yields much more tightly.
According to both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, last week’s retail-driven chaos was nothing…Read the full story here on our partner Magnifi’s site.
Don’t be fooled by this rally. Many research analysts, including those at Citi, say that this big rise in markets is not being driven by bulls, but by bears. One of the odd parts of these gains has been that money has been continuously flowing out of equity funds since March, but prices have risen despite that. The reason why may be that instead of bulls buying stocks, the gains have been driven by short-sellers buying back short positions they opened at the start of COVID.
FINSUM: This is good, simple analysis from Citi. Their additional comment could not have summed it up better: “From here, a move higher will need new longs and inflows”.
Goldman Sachs put out a pretty serious statement today. The bank said the surprising and “unloved” rally since stocks bottomed in March will not continue. The bank thinks that the market has set very high expectations for the recovery, and that waters are currently troubled with China. Furthermore, the huge gains have largely been driven by 5 stocks, and their needs to be much broader-based price increases for the market to rise. This will be tricky because the other 495 stocks in the index are more economically-sensitive. “Broader participation in the rally will be needed for the aggregate S&P 500 index to climb meaningfully higher. The modest upside for the largest stocks means the remaining 495 constituents will need to rally to lift the aggregate index”, said the bank.
FINSUM: This makes complete and total sense and helps explain why the rally has slowed in recent weeks.
Some stocks seem to be rallying for no apparent reason. The only underlying logic being that they got badly beaten up during the COVID meltdown and now look cheap relative to the market’s rebound. Call it the loser’s rally. Delta, for instance, has seen some significant gains in its price despite the fact that the airline business continues to look very bleak. Delta could be considered best-of-breed though, having a much healthier balance sheet than American Airlines.
FINSUM: This is a dangerous game—when stocks that look weak rise for no apparent reason. They will fall sharply when sentiment swings back.