Displaying items by tag: bonds

Following poor performance in Q3, fixed income is struggling to start the new quarter. SImilar to Q3, the bulk of weakness is in long-duration bonds. This is evident with the iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) which fell to its lowest levels since August 2007. Remarkably, TLT is now at levels prior to the entire bond bull market which began at the depths of the financial crisis as central banks embarked on more than a decade of ultra-easy policy to support the economy.

So far, TLT is down 13% year to date. It’s the largest fixed income ETF, and many investors’ preferred vehicle to get exposure to long-term Treasuries. There is some disagreement on the causes behind the move in long-term yields with some pointing to large amounts of Treasuries that will be auctioned off in the coming months to finance the federal government’s deficits. Others believe that the bond market is finally accepting the reality that inflation is now entrenched and that higher rates are here to stay. 

Some with a longer-term view don’t see much unusual about the breakout in long-term yields given that this tends to happen when central banks embark on tightening policy. As a result, we are seeing the curve un-invert as the spread in yields between short-duration and long-duration bonds continue to shrink.

Finsum: TLT is the most popular fixed income ETF. It’s now at its lowest levels since 2007 as long-term Treasury yields break out to new highs.

It’s a challenging period for fixed income investors given uncertainties around the economic outlook and monetary policy. While some are making bold bets on whether inflation will perk up once again or the economy fall into a recession, CIBC recommends that investors embrace this period of ‘higher for longer’ by focusing on short duration and high quality bonds.

With this strategy, investors can take advantage of generous yields while shielding themselves from potential risks. In terms of the bank’s outlook, its base case remains a moderate slowdown and a mild recession. Yet, it believes that many of these risks have already been priced in which is one factor in its bullishness towards the asset class.

Due to recent data indicating a pullback in consumer spending, weakness in retail sales, and a slowdown in housing activity, the firm believes that recession is more likely than another period of spiking inflation. Further, credit card balances are rising, while excess savings from the pandemic have been basically depleted.

If this scenario were to materialize, inflation would likely trend lower which would give central banks more latitude to loosen policy and lead to price appreciation for fixed income. 

Finsum: CIBC shared some thoughts on the economy and fixed income. It’s bullish on the asset class as it believes a mild recession is likely next year.

If you’re tinkering with the idea of bonds, consider this: the challenges on the fixed income landscape, according to money.usnews.com. For those who aren’t initiated, individual bonds – which trade over the counter – it can be a tough road to hoe.

That’s where bonds funds come in. For investors, they’re an entrée to diversified bonds. And what about the complexities of direct bond investment? There are none.  

"Given the higher risks and costs associated with portfolios of individual bonds, and the time they take to manage, most investors are better served by low-cost mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs," said Chris Tidmore, senior manager at Vanguard's Investment Advisory Research Center. "This is particularly true in the case of municipal and corporate bonds, which are less liquid and harder to purchase than Treasury bonds."

Meantime, calling it a day was Eric Needleman, global head of Fixed Income, who plans to do so by year’s end, according to an announcement by Stifel Financial Corp., reported yahoo.com.

"We are deeply grateful for Eric’s dedication, leadership, and the lasting impact he has made on our firm,” said Stifel Chairman and CEO Ron Kruszewski. “He set a standard of excellence that will continue to define Stifel's approach to the fixed income business.”

Within asset management, active fixed income is in a growth boom based on a surge of inflows and new issuances to meet this demand. There are two secular components as ETFs continue to displace mutual funds as preferred vehicles for fixed income investing, and institutions and advisors become more aware and comfortable with the category. 

And, a cyclical factor is the current market environment given the combination of attractive yields and uncertainty about the trajectory of monetary policy. These environments tend to favor active over passive strategies since active managers have more latitude in terms of credit quality and duration.

In recent months, we’ve seen a frenzy in terms of new issues with Vanguard and Blackrock introducing active ETFs that mirror their own active fixed income mutual funds. Now, Capital Group is joining the fray with the launches of the Capital Group Core Bond ETF (CGCB) and the Capital Group Short Duration Municipal Income ETF (CGSM). Asset managers are responding to demand for these products, or otherwise would lose market share to firms who provide ETF versions of popular mutual funds. 

CGCB invests across the entire fixed income spectrum with a focus on capital preservation and generating income. CGSM invests in municipal debt that is exempt from federal taxes and typically short-duration. 

Finsum: Capital Group is launching two new active fixed income ETFs which is a major trend in the asset management world. 

Despite a down Q3, retail investors continue piling into fixed income ETFs, both long and short-duration. They don’t seem too fazed by the recent hawkishness from the Fed or recent calls for continued strength in yields. 

Last week, inflows into the most popular Treasury ETF - the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) reached its highest levels since March 2020. In Q3, TLT was down 13%. This turned a small yearly gain into a more than 10% decline. Despite this performance, TLT has had $4 billion of inflows in Q3 and has seen short interest decline as well. 

Clearly, retail investors have a contrarian bent as many strategists are calling for further weakness in bonds, and Fed fund futures markets increased their odds of further hikes while decreasing odds of cuts in 2024. 

Some of the inflows into fixed income may be due to concerns about equities and economic growth given recent soft labor and consumption data over the last few weeks. THerefore, they may be looking to take advantage of the highest yields in decades and the potential for price appreciation in the event of a recession or further cooling of inflation. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing continued inflows despite poor performance in Q3. Here are why retail investors may be buying the dip.