Displaying items by tag: bear market

(New York)

All the predictions in the market are about how steep the recession in Q2 will be (we think people should also be considering the Q1 numbers!), but a new paper has been published looking back at the economic effects of the 1918 pandemic. The surprising finding is that strong shutdowns did not actually hurt the economy as much as thought. In fact, the areas that undertook the strongest and swiftest shutdowns, had the weakest drops in output and the quickest recoveries. The average US location suffered an 18% downturn from the pandemic. However, the researchers (two from the Fed, one from MIT) summed up their findings this way, saying “Cities that implemented more rapid and forceful non-pharmaceutical health interventions do not experience worse downturns … In contrast, evidence on manufacturing activity and bank assets suggests that the economy performed better in areas with more aggressive NPIs after the pandemic”.

FINSUM: While this is not the most compelling evidence (given it is 100 years old), it is encouraging to consider that those taking swift action might not see the worst consequences.

(New York)

Markets have been on an extraordinary run over the last three days. 20%+ for the Dow and a measly 18% for the S&P 500, technically ending the bull market. It was the best three-day run since 1931 (in itself a bleak reference). However, many on the street think this rally was too bullish too fast, as we are arguably not even to the worst of the health crisis, and certainly not in the worst part of the coming economic slowdown.

FINSUM: We are going to have at least two quarters of awful earnings and several months of terrible jobs data, so there is a long way to go. This seems like a stimulus-euphoria/dead-cat bounce rally.

(New York)

Yes, the market had an unbelievable day yesterday. It was so good in fact, that it reminds one of all the things bad about the current situation—markets don’t rise 11% unless there is a huge crisis going on. At the time of writing, markets are pretty flat today, but tomorrow could be a doozy. US weekly jobless clams get released tomorrow morning and will be one of the first tangible signs of how the economy is trending under the coronavirus lockdown.

FINSUM: Many analysts are saying we might hit 30% unemployment, depending on how long this general virus lockdown lasts. Tomorrow could be the first sign of things to come and markets may react sharply.

(New York)

Many RIAs across the country are worried right now. With fee levels often tied to AUM, revenue seems likely to take a ~30% hit this year. That is enough to break many RIAs, especially those who were previously running only 10% profit margins. So how can RIAs cope? Firstly, those who have been very tight on budgets are in better shape. Those who were operating at 30% profit margins should be okay. A few of the key aspects to consider right now are: reaching out to vendors to “share the pain”, changing compensation structures towards lower fixed pay and more incentive-based pay, and switching to a quarterly budget, which will better align expenses and income.

FINSUM: We might go through a long period of lean times, so RIAs need to act fast to get their fixed costs under control.

(Washington)

The forecasts for growth have been reverberating through markets. When this whole crisis started, Goldman Sachs initially said there would be a 5% drop in GDP in the second quarter. Oh how delightful that sounds now. Things have escalated considerably since then. Here is a smattering of various Q2 GDP forecasts: Goldman Sachs at 24% decline, Morgan Stanley at 30%, and the St. Louis Fed at a whopping 50% decline.

FINSUM: We think it is safe to assume that the GDP decline in Q2 is going to massive. So much so that the actual figure matters much less than the pace at which the economy bounces back thereafter. Is it going to be a V-shaped recovery, or a U, or the dreaded “L-shaped” recovery?