Failed loading XML...

Bonds: Total Market

(New York)

The bond market is doing something that it usually doesn’t—it is scaring stocks. Generally speaking, big sell offs in stocks drive moves in bonds, but rarely do moves in bonds spook stocks. Except for right now, that is. The ten-year yield dropped to 1.48% recently, below the two-year’s 1.51%, signaling another 2y-10y inversion which is a classic recession indicator. But the 3m-10y is even scarier as it touched a fresh new low of negative 51 basis points.

FINSUM: The bond market thinks a recession is coming and that Fed policy is too tight. The velocity with which that sentiment is driving yields is spooking stocks, and rightly so.


The inverted yield curve may be odd, and negative yields in Europe may be strange, but the weirdest current perversion of markets (or is it the “new normal”?) is in Denmark specifically. That oddity is the negative rate mortgage. Yes, homebuyers are getting paid to take out mortgages to buy a home. Jyske Bank, Denmark’s third largest lender, is offering a mortgage rate of -.50% before fees.

FINSUM: So this is already happening in Europe, but it may have limited effects given the continent’s demographic struggles. It is hard to imagine this happening in the US, but if it did, we bet it would cause a housing boom.

(New York)

Bloomberg has published a very insightful article about the current state of the market. In particular, it offers a view of how the big run up in bonds is likely to end. The fears that are driving the bond market—mostly that de-globalization will cause a recession—can only end two ways. Either the recession and de-globalization never materialize, in which case yields shoot back up, causing big losses in bonds. Or, the breakdown of global trade does happen, In this scenario, goods likely become significantly more expensive (especially in west) because there is no more labor and cost arbitrage. In this scenario, inflation then jumps, again sending yields much higher and sparking losses. In other words, the current bond market can only end in tears.

FINSUM: This was a very insightful argument in Bloomberg today. While there are some nuances that might cause some different outcomes, the basic contention is quite astute. Stocks seems a much better bet.

Page 1 of 8

Contact Us



Subscribe to our daily newsletter

We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…