(New York)

Some of the biggest names in bonds are making a bold proclamation that all investors need to hear—that the 30-year bond bull market is over. Both Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach are saying that with Treasury yields rising—currently sitting about 2.5% on ten-years—the bond market has entered a new phase. Gundlach says we are entering an era of “quantitative tightening”, which will cause losses for bonds. Gross says the bear market was confirmed when 5y and 10y Treasuries crossed 25y trend lines recently.

FINSUM: We may very well be entering an era of tightening, but that does not mean it will necessary be a brutal bear market, especially with the demographically-driven demand for bonds. Additionally, with the economy going very well, a recession could be coming, which would ease the tightening.

(New York)

Tech has been the undisputed leader of the rally over the last several months, but there might be cracks in its armor that investors need to be aware of. Internal price momentum has started to fade in the sector, and it looks as though it might be ready to hand over leadership of the market. According to one equity analyst, “Relative performance has diverged on the sector’s new high, while semiconductors and small caps have failed to confirm as well”.

FINSUM: No one wants to hear this, but with valuations so high, it might well be true. The other big risk is regulation, but given good business momentum in the sector, there could still be some room to run.

(Houston)

Oil has been in a bear market for about three years. While it has not been consistent and there have been ups and downs, oil prices have been mostly stuck, plagued by oversupply. However, Citi thinks that paradigm is about to disappear, with prices rising to $80 per barrel. Citi says a host of geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Iran, broader Middle East tensions, and North Korea are three issues which will send prices higher.

FINSUM: We aren’t big fans of this prediction. Not so much because we don’t think oil could move higher, but because forecasting political risks is a hopeless exercise. Here is a different view: the OPEC agreement falls apart because the only producer it is helping is the US (which is not in OPEC), sending prices much lower.

(New York)

Despite reaching a much more mature stage of their development, ETFs, overall, are still on a torrid run. But what is next for the all-consuming asset class? Barron’s argues there are a few trends to watch. The first will be an expansion of fixed income ETFs, which have grown considerably, but have much more room to run. Secondly, advisors might have bigger clout in the sector, as RIAs may start converting their own strategies into ETFs. Also, the further hybridizing of passive/active funds may go faster as Vanguard is debuting a new range of very low-cost active ETFs.

FINSUM: Mentally we sort of compare ETFs to the growth of Amazon. The question is where WON’T they head next.

(New York)

Advisors keep your eyes open, FINRA has put out a new warning on what not to do. The regulator says that dually-registered advisors need to be very careful when moving client funds from a brokerage to an advisory account. FINRA explains best, saying “Finra will review situations in which registered representatives recommend a switch from a brokerage account where that switch clearly disadvantages the customer … such as where the registered representative recommended that the customer purchase a securities product subject to a front-end sales charge in a brokerage account and then shortly thereafter recommended that account be transferred to a fee-based account”.

FINSUM: This is sort of a suitability/fiduciary rule hybrid type of enforcement. We thought all advisors should be aware that FINRA is on the lookout for this.